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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6,1x - 6,8x | 6,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,5x - 6,1x | 5,8x |
| Fair Value | €26,04 - €30,41 | €28,23 |
| Upside | -7,6% - 7,9% | 0,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Italgas S.p.A. | IG | BIT:IG |
| Veolia Environnement SA | VIE | ENXTPA:VIE |
| UGI Corporation | 3U6 | DB:3U6 |
| Engie SA | ENGI | ENXTPA:ENGI |
| Elia Group SA/NV | ELI | ENXTBR:ELI |
| Rubis | RUI | ENXTPA:RUI |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| IG | VIE | 3U6 | ENGI | ELI | RUI | ||
| BIT:IG | ENXTPA:VIE | DB:3U6 | ENXTPA:ENGI | ENXTBR:ELI | ENXTPA:RUI | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.3% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 5.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.5% | 21.7% | -17.7% | 9.0% | 25.0% | 9.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.6% | 2.6% | 8.3% | -16.3% | 75.3% | -16.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 47.9% | 11.3% | 21.7% | 16.4% | 33.3% | 11.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 45.1% | 12.0% | -0.9% | 19.6% | 32.9% | 12.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 50.7% | 12.5% | 22.8% | 18.3% | 39.7% | 10.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 50.6% | 12.5% | 24.6% | 18.3% | 46.0% | 10.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 5.18x | 0.88x | 1.91x | 1.04x | 6.38x | 0.68x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.2x | 7.1x | 7.8x | 5.7x | 16.1x | 6.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.8x | 12.6x | 11.2x | 8.7x | 25.5x | 8.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.7x | 7.8x | 16.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 5.9x | 6.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 6.4x | 6.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 708 | 708 | 708 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,324 | 4,552 | 4,779 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,595) | (1,595) | (1,595) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,729 | 2,957 | 3,185 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 102.7 | 102.7 | 102.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 26.56 | 28.78 | 30.99 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 26.56 | 28.78 | 30.99 | 28.18 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -5.7% | 2.1% | 10.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | IG | VIE | 3U6 | ENGI | ELI | RUI | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,908 | 39,335 | 13,858 | 76,451 | 22,497 | 4,490 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,573 | 11,764 | 426 | 17,737 | 4,974 | 676 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 3,006 | 393 | 12,856 | 644 | 83 | |
| (-) Debt | (9,150) | (29,282) | (7,031) | (52,438) | (16,219) | (2,226) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (2,391) | (9) | (6,902) | (618) | (128) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 7,331 | 22,432 | 7,637 | 47,704 | 11,278 | 2,895 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,014.7 | 730.4 | 214.4 | 2,425.8 | 109.1 | 102.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.23 | 30.71 | 35.61 | 19.67 | 103.40 | 28.18 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.23 | 30.71 | 30.32 | 19.67 | 103.40 | 28.18 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |