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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 10,6x - 11,8x | 11,2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3,4x - 3,8x | 3,6x |
| Fair Value | €8,48 - €14,42 | €11,45 |
| Upside | -47,3% - -10,3% | -28,8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Air France-KLM SA | 0LN7 | LSE:0LN7 |
| Finnair Oyj | 0EG8 | LSE:0EG8 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | LSE:IAG |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0H4A | LSE:0H4A |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | 0RYA | LSE:0RYA |
| Wizz Air Holdings Plc | WI2 | DB:WI2 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 0LN7 | 0EG8 | IAG | 0H4A | 0RYA | WI2 | ||
| LSE:0LN7 | LSE:0EG8 | LSE:IAG | LSE:0H4A | LSE:0RYA | DB:WI2 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 1.9% | 3.4% | 6.0% | -2.6% | 8.3% | 0.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | 193.9% | 102.7% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 33.8% | -23.8% | 33.8% | 18.3% | 19.6% | 16.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 0.1% | -9.9% | -8.6% | 1.2% | 11.8% | -9.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.8% | 17.2% | 15.1% | 11.1% | 22.7% | 9.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.5% | 13.8% | 17.2% | 8.4% | 19.4% | 9.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.7% | 12.0% | 18.6% | 8.9% | 22.4% | 9.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.42x | 0.48x | 0.79x | 0.37x | 1.80x | 1.20x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.9x | 4.0x | 4.2x | 4.1x | 8.0x | 12.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.9x | 30.2x | 5.2x | 9.6x | 12.5x | 46.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.9x | 4.1x | 8.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -25.0x | -14.3x | 30.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.6x | 11.2x | 11.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 519 | 519 | 519 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,523 | 5,813 | 6,104 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,963) | (4,963) | (4,963) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 559 | 850 | 1,140 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 103.4 | 103.4 | 103.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 5.41 | 8.22 | 11.03 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.41 | 8.22 | 11.03 | 16.08 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -66.4% | -48.9% | -31.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 0LN7 | 0EG8 | IAG | 0H4A | 0RYA | WI2 | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,676 | 1,470 | 25,995 | 14,217 | 22,999 | 6,626 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 6,314 | 804 | 9,348 | 8,590 | 4,348 | 1,658 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 205 | 0 | 284 | 1,235 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (14,280) | (1,620) | (14,807) | (14,021) | (2,324) | (6,621) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,125) | 0 | (6) | (50) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,790 | 654 | 20,814 | 9,971 | 25,024 | 1,663 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 262.6 | 204.8 | 4,636.6 | 1,198.3 | 1,060.6 | 103.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 14.43 | 3.19 | 4.49 | 8.32 | 23.59 | 16.08 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 14.43 | 3.19 | 3.88 | 8.32 | 20.37 | 16.08 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | GBP | EUR | GBP | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | |