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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 16,1x - 17,8x | 17,0x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11,1x - 12,3x | 11,7x |
Fair Value | €22,45 - €24,73 | €23,59 |
Upside | -25,7% - -18,1% | -21,9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Rheinmetall AG | RHM | DB:RHM |
Thales S.A. | HO | ENXTPA:HO |
Hensoldt AG | HAG | XTRA:HAG |
BAE Systems plc | BSP | DB:BSP |
L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | HRS | DB:HRS |
Theon International Plc | W8C | DB:W8C |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
RHM | HO | HAG | BSP | HRS | W8C | ||
DB:RHM | ENXTPA:HO | XTRA:HAG | DB:BSP | DB:HRS | DB:W8C | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 19.6% | 4.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 82.6% | |
3Y CAGR | 29.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 50.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 57.4% | 12.8% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 5.5% | 38.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 14.3% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 18.2% | 27.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 15.5% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 18.4% | 25.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 18.0% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 18.4% | 25.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 17.5% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 18.6% | 25.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 8.15x | 2.55x | 5.59x | 2.39x | 2.89x | 5.67x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 46.4x | 19.5x | 48.6x | 19.4x | 15.5x | 21.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 57.5x | 29.7x | 74.0x | 25.5x | 22.9x | 22.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.5x | 19.5x | 48.6x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.1x | 10.1x | 10.1x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.1x | 17.0x | 17.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 95 | 95 | 95 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,533 | 1,614 | 1,695 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 55 | 55 | 55 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,588 | 1,669 | 1,749 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 70.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 22.68 | 23.84 | 24.99 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 22.68 | 23.84 | 24.99 | 30.20 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -24.9% | -21.1% | -17.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | RHM | HO | HAG | BSP | HRS | W8C | |
Enterprise Value | 85,129 | 52,720 | 12,831 | 64,721 | 61,550 | 2,059 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,083 | 4,768 | 591 | 3,427 | 517 | 157 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 328 | 1,809 | 30 | 849 | 0 | 4 | |
(-) Debt | (1,704) | (7,823) | (1,519) | (10,316) | (12,252) | (95) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (462) | (43) | (13) | (161) | 1 | (11) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 84,374 | 51,431 | 11,920 | 58,520 | 49,816 | 2,114 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 45.8 | 205.3 | 115.5 | 2,990.1 | 186.9 | 70.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 1,843.50 | 250.50 | 103.20 | 19.57 | 266.47 | 30.20 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.16 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,843.50 | 250.50 | 103.20 | 22.59 | 229.30 | 30.20 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.16 | 1.00 |