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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 14,5x - 16,0x | 15,3x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10,7x - 11,8x | 11,3x |
Fair Value | €42,13 - €47,22 | €44,67 |
Upside | 2,3% - 14,7% | 8,5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
OMV Aktiengesellschaft | OMV | DB:OMV |
The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | DB:WMB |
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. | ELPE | ATSE:ELPE |
Neste Oyj | NESTE | HLSE:NESTE |
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. | GALP | ENXTLS:GALP |
Koninklijke Vopak N.V. | VPK5 | DB:VPK5 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
OMV | WMB | ELPE | NESTE | GALP | VPK5 | ||
DB:OMV | DB:WMB | ATSE:ELPE | HLSE:NESTE | ENXTLS:GALP | DB:VPK5 | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 8.5% | 7.2% | 3.2% | -61.4% | 13.0% | 3.0% | |
3Y CAGR | -5.5% | 8.5% | 0.1% | -78.9% | 13.1% | 8.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -0.1% | 0.7% | -92.7% | -105.8% | -30.9% | -9.3% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 13.3% | 31.6% | 4.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 27.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 12.1% | 42.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 30.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 14.9% | 31.4% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 11.3% | 29.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 13.5% | 32.6% | 0.6% | -0.3% | 10.1% | 28.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.51x | 8.39x | 0.43x | 0.83x | 0.72x | 4.14x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.6x | 15.8x | 14.8x | 29.4x | 5.5x | 8.7x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 3.8x | 25.7x | 74.1x | -254.0x | 7.1x | 14.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -254.0x | 7.1x | 74.1x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 15.3x | 20.9x | 24.3x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 14.5x | 15.3x | 16.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 380 | 380 | 380 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,508 | 5,797 | 6,087 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (718) | (718) | (718) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 4,789 | 5,079 | 5,369 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 115.3 | 115.3 | 115.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 41.55 | 44.06 | 46.58 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 41.55 | 44.06 | 46.58 | 41.18 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 0.9% | 7.0% | 13.1% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | OMV | WMB | ELPE | NESTE | GALP | VPK5 | |
Enterprise Value | 16,650 | 94,525 | 4,946 | 17,179 | 14,481 | 5,465 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 6,391 | 903 | 766 | 981 | 2,229 | 100 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 6,355 | 4,209 | 191 | 87 | 97 | 2,142 | |
(-) Debt | (7,542) | (28,572) | (3,362) | (5,344) | (4,947) | (2,835) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (6,406) | (2,367) | (53) | 0 | (775) | (125) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | (35) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 15,448 | 68,663 | 2,488 | 12,903 | 11,085 | 4,747 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 327.0 | 1,221.2 | 305.6 | 768.2 | 695.4 | 115.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 47.24 | 56.23 | 8.14 | 16.80 | 15.94 | 41.18 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 47.24 | 48.04 | 8.14 | 16.80 | 15.94 | 41.18 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |