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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6,2x - 6,8x | 6,5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4,9x - 5,4x | 5,2x |
Fair Value | €3,21 - €3,69 | €3,45 |
Upside | 29,5% - 48,8% | 39,2% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | PETR3 | BOVESPA:PETR3 |
Cosan S.A. | CSAN3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 |
Petroreconcavo S.A. | RECV3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 |
Brava Energia S.A. | BRAV3 | BOVESPA:BRAV3 |
Ultrapar Participações S.A. | UGR | DB:UGR |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
857 | PETR3 | CSAN3 | RECV3 | BRAV3 | UGR | ||
SEHK:857 | BOVESPA:PETR3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 | BOVESPA:BRAV3 | DB:UGR | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 7.0% | 10.7% | 37.2% | 61.6% | NM- | 11.5% | |
3Y CAGR | 7.3% | -3.4% | 33.0% | 44.1% | 96.0% | 33.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -2.8% | -16.1% | 26.5% | 32.1% | 24.0% | -7.8% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 14.8% | 48.7% | 23.9% | 52.0% | 27.9% | 3.0% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 16.3% | 48.2% | 26.4% | 45.8% | 33.9% | 4.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 16.3% | 40.1% | 30.1% | 50.8% | 32.3% | 3.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 16.7% | 39.5% | 30.5% | 51.1% | 32.2% | 3.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.54x | 1.51x | 1.72x | 1.41x | 2.42x | 0.19x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.2x | 3.8x | 5.6x | 2.7x | 7.5x | 5.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 6.2x | 4.9x | 7.4x | 4.7x | 11.7x | 6.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.7x | 3.8x | 7.5x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.6x | 8.4x | 17.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 6.5x | 6.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 5,012 | 5,012 | 5,012 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 30,958 | 32,588 | 34,217 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (9,243) | (9,243) | (9,243) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 21,715 | 23,344 | 24,974 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,075.3 | 1,075.3 | 1,075.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 20.19 | 21.71 | 23.23 | ||||
FX Rate: BRL/EUR | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.11 | 3.34 | 3.57 | 2.48 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 25.3% | 34.6% | 44.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 857 | PETR3 | CSAN3 | RECV3 | BRAV3 | UGR | |
Enterprise Value | 1,808,511 | 768,097 | 75,802 | 4,807 | 23,482 | 26,580 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 316,530 | 44,038 | 17,647 | 1,018 | 4,372 | 2,737 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 300,860 | 8,984 | 11,438 | 16 | 2,871 | 3,756 | |
(-) Debt | (364,748) | (370,314) | (67,073) | (1,873) | (21,822) | (15,042) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (199,413) | (1,762) | (26,879) | 0 | 0 | (695) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,861,740 | 449,043 | 10,935 | 3,969 | 8,903 | 17,337 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 273,222.9 | 12,888.7 | 1,862.8 | 292.9 | 464.2 | 1,075.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 6.81 | 34.84 | 5.87 | 13.55 | 19.18 | 16.12 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 6.50 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.47 | 34.84 | 5.87 | 13.55 | 19.18 | 2.48 | |
Trading Currency | HKD | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 6.50 |