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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 7,9x - 8,8x | 8,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7,1x - 7,9x | 7,5x |
| Fair Value | €3,20 - €3,68 | €3,44 |
| Upside | 23,0% - 41,4% | 32,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | PETR3 | BOVESPA:PETR3 |
| Cosan S.A. | CSAN3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 |
| Petroreconcavo S.A. | RECV3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 |
| Prio S.A. | PRIO3 | BOVESPA:PRIO3 |
| Ultrapar Participações S.A. | UGR | DB:UGR |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 857 | PETR3 | CSAN3 | RECV3 | PRIO3 | UGR | ||
| SEHK:857 | BOVESPA:PETR3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 | BOVESPA:PRIO3 | DB:UGR | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 15.0% | 14.9% | 35.9% | 73.4% | 69.1% | 15.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 14.5% | -6.0% | 38.4% | 49.4% | 43.8% | 40.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.2% | -19.5% | 33.9% | 55.5% | -20.9% | -7.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.5% | 38.6% | 17.3% | 31.3% | 51.4% | 2.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.3% | 39.8% | 19.2% | 24.2% | 59.8% | 3.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.4% | 31.7% | 22.7% | 29.0% | 45.0% | 2.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.6% | 30.9% | 23.3% | 29.8% | 36.8% | 2.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.51x | 1.53x | 1.83x | 1.60x | 3.40x | 0.20x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.1x | 3.9x | 6.0x | 3.1x | 6.3x | 5.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.9x | 4.9x | 7.9x | 5.3x | 9.2x | 7.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 4.9x | 5.9x | 9.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 6.0x | 11.9x | 24.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 7.9x | 8.4x | 8.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 3,852 | 3,852 | 3,852 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 30,604 | 32,215 | 33,826 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (9,243) | (9,243) | (9,243) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 21,361 | 22,972 | 24,582 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,075.3 | 1,075.3 | 1,075.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 19.87 | 21.36 | 22.86 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/EUR | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.15 | 3.38 | 3.62 | 2.60 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 21.0% | 30.2% | 39.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 857 | PETR3 | CSAN3 | RECV3 | PRIO3 | UGR | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,709,729 | 782,404 | 79,994 | 5,434 | 53,794 | 26,892 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 316,530 | 44,038 | 17,647 | 1,018 | 4,162 | 2,737 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 300,860 | 8,984 | 11,438 | 16 | 0 | 3,756 | |
| (-) Debt | (364,748) | (370,314) | (67,073) | (1,873) | (22,065) | (15,042) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (199,413) | (1,762) | (26,879) | 0 | 0 | (695) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,762,958 | 463,350 | 15,126 | 4,596 | 35,891 | 17,648 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 273,222.9 | 12,888.7 | 1,862.8 | 292.9 | 815.1 | 1,075.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6.45 | 35.95 | 8.12 | 15.69 | 44.03 | 16.41 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 6.31 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.05 | 35.95 | 8.12 | 15.69 | 44.03 | 2.60 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 6.31 | |