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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,3x - 0,4x | 0,3x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,3x - 0,3x | 0,3x |
Fair Value | €10,97 - €12,59 | €11,78 |
Upside | 36,1% - 56,2% | 46,2% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
HBX Group International plc | Q1D | MUN:Q1D |
Accor SA | ACR | XTRA:ACR |
Dalata Hotel Group plc | DHG | DB:DHG |
Meliá Hotels International, S.A. | MEL | DB:MEL |
Carnival Corporation & plc | POH1 | XTRA:POH1 |
TUI AG | TUI1 | DB:TUI1 |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
Q1D | ACR | DHG | MEL | POH1 | TUI1 | |||
MUN:Q1D | XTRA:ACR | DB:DHG | DB:MEL | XTRA:POH1 | DB:TUI1 | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | 6.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | ||
3Y CAGR | NM- | 36.5% | 50.3% | 34.5% | 135.8% | 69.8% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | NM | 10.9% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 34.8% | -3.0% | 11.4% | -15.0% | -338.0% | -21.0% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 37.3% | 14.3% | 26.1% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 41.1% | 13.9% | 24.4% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 3.8% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 42.0% | 13.9% | 24.4% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 3.8% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 5.11x | 2.37x | 3.62x | 2.10x | 2.51x | 0.27x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 12.2x | 17.0x | 14.8x | 14.7x | 15.6x | 7.1x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 3.87x | 2.12x | 2.07x | 0.84x | 1.48x | 0.17x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 2.10x | 2.51x | 5.11x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.22x | 0.45x | 4.03x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.33x | 0.35x | 0.37x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 23,791 | 23,791 | 23,791 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,898 | 8,314 | 8,730 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,268) | (2,268) | (2,268) | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 5,630 | 6,046 | 6,462 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 507.4 | 507.4 | 507.4 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 11.10 | 11.91 | 12.73 | |||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.10 | 11.91 | 12.73 | 8.06 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 37.7% | 47.9% | 58.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | Q1D | ACR | DHG | MEL | POH1 | TUI1 | |
Enterprise Value | 3,488 | 13,253 | 2,357 | 3,930 | 65,661 | 6,357 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 311 | 1,244 | 40 | 192 | 2,146 | 1,796 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 33 | 1,583 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,662 | |
(-) Debt | (1,204) | (3,757) | (1,050) | (2,421) | (28,653) | (4,807) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (2) | (437) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (919) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,626 | 11,886 | 1,346 | 1,701 | 39,154 | 4,089 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 247.2 | 240.6 | 211.3 | 220.2 | 1,454.0 | 507.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 10.62 | 49.40 | 6.37 | 7.73 | 26.93 | 8.06 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 10.62 | 49.40 | 6.37 | 7.73 | 23.25 | 8.06 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 |