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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5,7x - 6,3x | 6,0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,2x - 5,8x | 5,5x |
| Fair Value | €16,89 - €19,40 | €18,14 |
| Upside | -1,8% - 12,8% | 5,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Kato Works Co.,Ltd. | 6390 | TSE:6390 |
| Tadano Ltd. | 6395 | TSE:6395 |
| Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. | 157 | SZSE:000157 |
| Mitsubishi Electric Corporation | 6503 | TSE:6503 |
| Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. | 528 | SZSE:000528 |
| Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd. | SSM1 | DB:SSM1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 6390 | 6395 | 157 | 6503 | 528 | SSM1 | ||
| TSE:6390 | TSE:6395 | SZSE:000157 | TSE:6503 | SZSE:000528 | DB:SSM1 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.9% | 10.0% | -6.2% | 2.5% | 8.6% | -1.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 157.9% | -16.2% | 5.1% | 12.3% | 4.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -23.2% | 16.5% | -10.2% | 18.1% | 9.2% | -22.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 1.0% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 9.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 10.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.5% | NA | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.76x | 0.51x | 1.52x | 1.06x | 0.71x | 0.48x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.0x | 5.1x | 16.9x | 11.0x | 9.0x | 5.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 39.6x | 6.7x | 23.4x | 15.5x | 12.3x | 10.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 11.0x | 17.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.1x | 4.3x | 4.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.7x | 6.0x | 6.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 87,252 | 87,252 | 87,252 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 494,250 | 520,263 | 546,277 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (144,811) | (144,811) | (144,811) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 349,439 | 375,452 | 401,466 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 120.2 | 120.2 | 120.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2,907.50 | 3,123.94 | 3,340.39 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 172.3 | 172.3 | 172.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 16.87 | 18.13 | 19.38 | 17.20 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -1.9% | 5.4% | 12.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 6390 | 6395 | 157 | 6503 | 528 | SSM1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 40,048 | 157,085 | 72,460 | 5,826,605 | 22,368 | 501,062 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 14,763 | 80,875 | 15,936 | 757,331 | 8,514 | 121,972 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3,854 | 9,141 | 6,299 | 324,766 | 1,066 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (43,808) | (129,066) | (27,965) | (360,661) | (10,421) | (261,201) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (1,787) | (2,559) | (126,688) | (1,534) | (5,582) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 14,857 | 116,248 | 64,172 | 6,421,353 | 19,992 | 356,251 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 11.3 | 111.8 | 8,648.5 | 2,065.4 | 1,983.3 | 120.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,311.00 | 1,040.00 | 7.42 | 3,109.00 | 10.08 | 2,964.18 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 172.34 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,311.00 | 1,040.00 | 7.42 | 3,109.00 | 10.08 | 17.20 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | CNY | JPY | CNY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 172.34 | |