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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,6x - 0,7x | 0,7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,6x - 0,7x | 0,7x |
| Fair Value | €6,18 - €7,54 | €6,86 |
| Upside | 55,3% - 89,5% | 72,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| AECI Ltd | AFE | JSE:AFE |
| Solvay SA | SVYS.F | OTCPK:SVYS.F |
| Westlake Corporation | WLK | NYSE:WLK |
| LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | L1YB34 | BOVESPA:L1YB34 |
| African Rainbow Minerals Limited | ARI | JSE:ARI |
| Sasol Limited | SAOA | DB:SAOA |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| AFE | SVYS.F | WLK | L1YB34 | ARI | SAOA | |||
| JSE:AFE | OTCPK:SVYS.F | NYSE:WLK | BOVESPA:L1YB34 | JSE:ARI | DB:SAOA | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.3% | -14.5% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 8.8% | -23.4% | 1.0% | -4.4% | -16.6% | 10.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.8% | -8.9% | -1.3% | 1.3% | -3.6% | -5.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.2% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 31.6% | 14.6% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.0% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 32.3% | 18.5% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.6% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | -1.5% | 16.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.6% | 10.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | -7.1% | 15.2% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.41x | 0.89x | 0.96x | 0.63x | 2.70x | 0.53x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.9x | 8.2x | 16.2x | 11.3x | -38.3x | 3.5x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.32x | 0.60x | 0.76x | 0.46x | 2.89x | 0.20x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.41x | 0.89x | 2.70x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.64x | 1.11x | 1.27x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.64x | 0.68x | 0.71x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 260,928 | 260,928 | 260,928 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 168,193 | 177,045 | 185,898 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (87,257) | (87,257) | (87,257) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 80,936 | 89,788 | 98,641 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 636.2 | 636.2 | 636.2 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 127.22 | 141.13 | 155.05 | |||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/EUR | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.26 | 6.95 | 7.63 | 3.98 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 57.4% | 74.6% | 91.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AFE | SVYS.F | WLK | L1YB34 | ARI | SAOA | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,715 | 4,430 | 11,688 | 25,079 | (2,703) | 138,679 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,028 | 467 | 2,480 | 1,895 | 8,444 | 36,716 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 329 | 311 | 1,075 | 4,114 | 33,770 | 14,586 | |
| (-) Debt | (6,140) | (2,220) | (5,455) | (12,814) | (2,134) | (134,183) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (163) | (66) | (511) | (126) | (4,134) | (4,376) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 10,763 | 2,922 | 9,277 | 18,148 | 33,243 | 51,422 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 105.5 | 104.5 | 128.2 | 649.0 | 196.1 | 636.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 102.00 | 27.97 | 72.34 | 27.96 | 169.56 | 80.83 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 1.00 | 20.31 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 102.00 | 31.75 | 72.34 | 160.64 | 169.56 | 3.98 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | USD | USD | BRL | ZAR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 1.00 | 20.31 | |