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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 13,8x - 15,2x | 14,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9,3x - 10,3x | 9,8x |
| Fair Value | €20,82 - €23,29 | €22,06 |
| Upside | -15,3% - -5,3% | -10,3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Stora Enso Oyj | STEAV | HLSE:STEAV |
| Iberpapel Gestión, S.A. | IBG | BME:IBG |
| West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | WFC | DB:WFC |
| Sappi Limited | SPI | DB:SPI |
| Holmen AB (publ) | HOLM A | OM:HOLMA |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj | RPL | DB:RPL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| STEAV | IBG | WFC | SPI | HOLM A | RPL | ||
| HLSE:STEAV | BME:IBG | DB:WFC | DB:SPI | OM:HOLMA | DB:RPL | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -17.4% | -4.4% | NM- | -4.7% | 11.1% | -4.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -34.2% | 85.4% | -70.0% | 17.7% | -1.9% | -8.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.7% | -76.8% | -121.9% | 7.5% | -20.1% | -1.7% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.3% | 5.5% | 16.7% | 6.1% | 16.5% | 12.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 0.4% | 16.9% | -0.1% | 9.7% | 17.7% | 9.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.6% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 11.7% | 10.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.5% | 3.8% | -1.3% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.11x | 0.65x | 0.95x | 0.53x | 2.60x | 1.40x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.8x | 6.8x | 11.8x | 4.8x | 16.2x | 7.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 31.2x | 17.0x | -75.6x | 8.5x | 24.6x | 15.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -75.6x | 17.0x | 31.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 11.0x | 12.9x | 18.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 13.8x | 14.5x | 15.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 903 | 903 | 903 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 12,429 | 13,083 | 13,738 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,371) | (1,371) | (1,371) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 11,058 | 11,712 | 12,367 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 527.3 | 527.3 | 527.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 20.97 | 22.21 | 23.45 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 20.97 | 22.21 | 23.45 | 24.58 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -14.7% | -9.6% | -4.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | STEAV | IBG | WFC | SPI | HOLM A | RPL | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,549 | 151 | 5,512 | 2,873 | 60,479 | 14,333 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,570 | 79 | 646 | 203 | 324 | 627 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,582 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1,698 | 2,400 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,688) | (16) | (336) | (2,150) | (5,703) | (4,066) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (332) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 8,162 | 214 | 5,822 | 944 | 56,798 | 12,962 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 788.6 | 10.9 | 78.9 | 604.6 | 155.6 | 527.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 10.35 | 19.60 | 73.83 | 1.56 | 365.00 | 24.58 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 10.35 | 19.60 | 63.35 | 1.34 | 365.00 | 24.58 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | SEK | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |