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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 26,7x - 29,5x | 28,1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 14,7x - 16,3x | 15,5x |
| Fair Value | €1.077 - €1.192 | €1.134 |
| Upside | -42,8% - -36,7% | -39,8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Hensoldt AG | HAG | XTRA:HAG |
| MTU Aero Engines AG | MTX | XTRA:MTX |
| Thales S.A. | CSF | DB:CSF |
| Dassault Aviation société anonyme | DAU0 | DB:DAU0 |
| Safran SA | SEJ1 | XTRA:SEJ1 |
| Rheinmetall AG | RHM | DB:RHM |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| HAG | MTX | CSF | DAU0 | SEJ1 | RHM | ||
| XTRA:HAG | XTRA:MTX | DB:CSF | DB:DAU0 | XTRA:SEJ1 | DB:RHM | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 9.8% | 8.0% | 4.2% | -6.2% | 1.1% | 19.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.6% | 29.4% | 9.5% | -0.5% | 27.5% | 29.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 25.6% | 1982.4% | 12.8% | 32.6% | 20.6% | 57.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.9% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 18.1% | 14.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 11.7% | -1.6% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 18.7% | 15.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.8% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 18.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.5% | 15.7% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 17.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 5.02x | 2.52x | 2.73x | 2.13x | 3.80x | 8.29x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 43.6x | 16.1x | 20.9x | 20.0x | 19.8x | 47.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 66.5x | 21.7x | 31.8x | 25.7x | 26.1x | 58.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.1x | 20.0x | 43.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.4x | 11.0x | 20.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 26.7x | 28.1x | 29.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,838 | 1,838 | 1,838 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 49,086 | 51,670 | 54,253 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (755) | (755) | (755) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 48,331 | 50,915 | 53,498 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,061.89 | 1,118.66 | 1,175.42 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,061.89 | 1,118.66 | 1,175.42 | 1,884.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -43.6% | -40.6% | -37.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HAG | MTX | CSF | DAU0 | SEJ1 | RHM | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,537 | 19,863 | 56,128 | 13,479 | 105,736 | 86,504 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 591 | 1,840 | 4,768 | 8,485 | 6,519 | 1,083 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 30 | 0 | 1,809 | 3,039 | 2,692 | 328 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,519) | (2,838) | (7,823) | (238) | (5,078) | (1,704) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (13) | 0 | (43) | 0 | (549) | (462) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 10,626 | 18,865 | 54,839 | 24,765 | 109,320 | 85,749 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 115.5 | 53.8 | 205.3 | 78.2 | 416.8 | 45.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 92.00 | 350.50 | 267.10 | 316.60 | 262.30 | 1,884.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 92.00 | 350.50 | 267.10 | 316.60 | 262.30 | 1,884.00 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |