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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 32,5x - 36,0x | 34,2x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 18,5x - 20,5x | 19,5x |
Fair Value | €1.095 - €1.211 | €1.153 |
Upside | -39,6% - -33,1% | -36,4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Hensoldt AG | HAG | XTRA:HAG |
Thales S.A. | CSF | DB:CSF |
MTU Aero Engines AG | MTX | XTRA:MTX |
Dassault Aviation société anonyme | DAU0 | DB:DAU0 |
Safran SA | SEJ1 | XTRA:SEJ1 |
Rheinmetall AG | RHM | DB:RHM |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
HAG | CSF | MTX | DAU0 | SEJ1 | RHM | ||
XTRA:HAG | DB:CSF | XTRA:MTX | DB:DAU0 | XTRA:SEJ1 | DB:RHM | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 23.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | -7.7% | 1.8% | 23.5% | |
3Y CAGR | 16.0% | 13.3% | 32.5% | -0.4% | 48.0% | 31.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 13.7% | 12.0% | 454.7% | 56.8% | 26.9% | 67.6% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 10.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 8.8% | 8.6% | -5.1% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 12.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 8.2% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 14.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 7.5% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 14.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 5.51x | 2.53x | 2.77x | 1.78x | 4.14x | 8.08x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 48.0x | 19.3x | 17.7x | 16.7x | 21.6x | 46.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 73.0x | 29.4x | 23.8x | 21.4x | 28.4x | 57.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 21.4x | 28.4x | 73.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 7.4x | 14.2x | 25.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 32.5x | 34.2x | 36.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 1,483 | 1,483 | 1,483 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 48,240 | 50,779 | 53,318 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (755) | (755) | (755) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 47,485 | 50,024 | 52,563 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 45.8 | 45.8 | 45.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 1,037.51 | 1,092.99 | 1,148.46 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,037.51 | 1,092.99 | 1,148.46 | 1,812.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -42.7% | -39.7% | -36.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | HAG | CSF | MTX | DAU0 | SEJ1 | RHM | |
Enterprise Value | 12,692 | 51,981 | 21,823 | 11,242 | 114,114 | 83,688 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 591 | 4,768 | 1,840 | 8,485 | 6,519 | 1,083 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 30 | 1,809 | 0 | 3,039 | 2,692 | 328 | |
(-) Debt | (1,519) | (7,823) | (2,838) | (238) | (5,078) | (1,704) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (13) | (43) | 0 | 0 | (549) | (462) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 11,781 | 50,692 | 20,825 | 22,528 | 117,698 | 82,933 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 115.5 | 205.3 | 53.8 | 78.2 | 416.6 | 45.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 102.00 | 246.90 | 386.90 | 288.00 | 282.50 | 1,812.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 102.00 | 246.90 | 386.90 | 288.00 | 282.50 | 1,812.00 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |