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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 10,2x - 11,3x | 10,8x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8,8x - 9,7x | 9,2x |
Fair Value | €14,11 - €18,04 | €16,08 |
Upside | 21,7% - 55,5% | 38,6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | PNW | NYSE:PNW |
Xcel Energy Inc. | XEL | NasdaqGS:XEL |
Alliant Energy Corporation | LNT | NasdaqGS:LNT |
Evergy, Inc. | EVRG | NasdaqGS:EVRG |
Entergy Corporation | ETR | NYSE:ETR |
PG&E Corporation | PCG | DB:PCG |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
PNW | XEL | LNT | EVRG | ETR | PCG | ||
NYSE:PNW | NasdaqGS:XEL | NasdaqGS:LNT | NasdaqGS:EVRG | NYSE:ETR | DB:PCG | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 14.4% | |
3Y CAGR | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 12.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 15.3% | 0.9% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 20.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 39.9% | 35.4% | 40.0% | 41.6% | 35.5% | 32.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 36.6% | 36.5% | 39.6% | 43.0% | 39.0% | 29.4% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 39.4% | 39.3% | 42.8% | 44.8% | 42.5% | 38.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 38.9% | 39.1% | 43.1% | 45.3% | 45.2% | 38.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 4.46x | 5.35x | 6.55x | 5.17x | 5.67x | 3.67x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.5x | 13.7x | 15.2x | 11.4x | 12.6x | 9.6x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 22.2x | 30.5x | 27.7x | 20.5x | 21.5x | 17.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.4x | 12.6x | 15.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.6x | 11.1x | 14.8x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.2x | 10.8x | 11.3x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 9,369 | 9,369 | 9,369 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 95,779 | 100,820 | 105,861 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (59,776) | (59,776) | (59,776) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 36,003 | 41,044 | 46,085 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,197.7 | 2,197.7 | 2,197.7 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 16.38 | 18.68 | 20.97 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.95 | 15.91 | 17.86 | 11.60 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 20.3% | 37.1% | 54.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | PNW | XEL | LNT | EVRG | ETR | PCG | |
Enterprise Value | 23,198 | 72,865 | 26,705 | 30,457 | 67,618 | 89,708 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 10 | 1,140 | 25 | 35 | 1,513 | 2,023 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 363 | 650 | 0 | 83 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (12,132) | (32,391) | (10,629) | (14,402) | (30,925) | (59,968) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (107) | 0 | 0 | (37) | (316) | (252) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,579) | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 10,968 | 41,977 | 16,751 | 16,053 | 37,973 | 29,932 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 119.4 | 576.8 | 256.9 | 230.1 | 430.8 | 2,197.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 91.86 | 72.78 | 65.21 | 69.77 | 88.15 | 13.62 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 91.86 | 72.78 | 65.21 | 69.77 | 88.15 | 11.60 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 |