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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12,4x - 13,7x | 13,0x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11,6x - 12,9x | 12,2x |
Fair Value | €30,96 - €34,14 | €32,55 |
Upside | 9,0% - 20,2% | 14,6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
NOF Corporation | 4403 | TSE:4403 |
Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company, Inc. | 4182 | TSE:4182 |
Nippon Kayaku Co., Ltd. | 4272 | TSE:4272 |
Tokuyama Corporation | 4043 | TSE:4043 |
Air Water Inc. | 4088 | TSE:4088 |
Nissan Chemical Corporation | NSC | DB:NSC |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
4403 | 4182 | 4272 | 4043 | 4088 | NSC | ||
TSE:4403 | TSE:4182 | TSE:4272 | TSE:4043 | TSE:4088 | DB:NSC | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 11.0% | 8.2% | 3.1% | -2.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | |
3Y CAGR | 8.4% | -2.8% | -1.0% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 7.5% | 7.4% | 178.1% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 17.9% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 18.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 22.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 19.0% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 21.3% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 19.0% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 22.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 19.0% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 22.6% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.36x | 0.54x | 0.67x | 0.68x | 0.71x | 2.63x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.5x | 4.8x | 4.3x | 4.7x | 6.6x | 9.3x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 12.4x | 8.2x | 7.3x | 7.7x | 11.5x | 11.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 7.3x | 8.2x | 12.4x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 11.6x | 16.5x | 19.7x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.4x | 13.0x | 13.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 56,834 | 56,834 | 56,834 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 704,592 | 741,676 | 778,760 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 17,914 | 17,914 | 17,914 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 722,506 | 759,590 | 796,674 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 135.6 | 135.6 | 135.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 5,328.34 | 5,601.83 | 5,875.31 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 173.4 | 173.4 | 173.4 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 30.73 | 32.31 | 33.89 | 28.40 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 8.2% | 13.8% | 19.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 4403 | 4182 | 4272 | 4043 | 4088 | NSC | |
Enterprise Value | 565,693 | 416,069 | 147,878 | 233,720 | 761,279 | 649,774 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 87,064 | 68,246 | 59,762 | 75,544 | 70,609 | 27,454 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 56,978 | 255,226 | 50,931 | 51,856 | 141,734 | 33,823 | |
(-) Debt | (5,041) | (202,976) | (42,096) | (110,689) | (441,623) | (40,474) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (1,022) | (29,153) | (992) | (12,295) | (19,719) | (2,889) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 703,672 | 507,412 | 215,483 | 238,136 | 512,280 | 667,688 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 231.5 | 194.7 | 155.8 | 71.9 | 229.2 | 135.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 3,040.00 | 2,606.00 | 1,383.50 | 3,310.00 | 2,235.50 | 4,924.07 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 173.38 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3,040.00 | 2,606.00 | 1,383.50 | 3,310.00 | 2,235.50 | 28.40 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 173.38 |