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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1,2x - 1,4x | 1,3x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2,0x - 2,2x | 2,1x |
| Fair Value | €22,06 - €26,92 | €24,49 |
| Upside | -40,9% - -27,8% | -34,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. | AMBP | NYSE:AMBP |
| Graphic Packaging Holding Company | GPK | NYSE:GPK |
| International Paper Company | IP | NYSE:IP |
| Packaging Corporation of America | PKG | NYSE:PKG |
| Avery Dennison Corporation | AVY | NYSE:AVY |
| Smurfit Westrock Plc | N4U | DB:N4U |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| AMBP | GPK | IP | PKG | AVY | N4U | |||
| NYSE:AMBP | NYSE:GPK | NYSE:IP | NYSE:PKG | NYSE:AVY | DB:N4U | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 8.0% | 7.4% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 15.8% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 6.6% | 7.2% | -1.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 20.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.0% | -6.6% | -1.6% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 74.6% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 11.0% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 3.7% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 14.4% | 11.5% | 11.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.5% | 13.0% | 5.2% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 6.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.5% | 13.0% | 5.2% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 6.5% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.02x | 1.46x | 1.62x | 2.18x | 1.88x | 1.66x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 29.5x | 11.2x | 31.1x | 15.8x | 14.4x | 25.5x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.35x | 0.86x | 1.36x | 1.95x | 1.54x | 1.01x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.02x | 1.62x | 2.18x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.90x | 1.53x | 1.66x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.24x | 1.30x | 1.37x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 21,109 | 21,109 | 21,109 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 26,104 | 27,478 | 28,851 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (13,786) | (13,786) | (13,786) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 12,318 | 13,692 | 15,065 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 519.9 | 519.9 | 519.9 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 23.69 | 26.33 | 28.98 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 21.56 | 23.97 | 26.37 | 37.30 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -42.2% | -35.7% | -29.3% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AMBP | GPK | IP | PKG | AVY | N4U | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,015 | 12,847 | 29,923 | 18,274 | 16,401 | 35,093 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 602 | 157 | 1,170 | 787 | 367 | 855 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 160 | 65 | 53 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,902) | (5,456) | (6,009) | (2,772) | (3,378) | (14,614) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6) | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (27) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,709 | 7,547 | 25,244 | 16,355 | 13,444 | 21,307 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 597.7 | 300.2 | 526.1 | 89.2 | 79.0 | 519.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.86 | 25.14 | 47.98 | 183.42 | 170.25 | 40.98 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.86 | 25.14 | 47.98 | 183.42 | 170.25 | 37.30 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.10 | |