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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8,1x - 8,9x | 8,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11,1x - 12,2x | 11,6x |
| Fair Value | €25,86 - €31 | €28,43 |
| Upside | -36,6% - -24,0% | -30,3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Packaging Corporation of America | PKG | NYSE:PKG |
| Sealed Air Corporation | SEE | NYSE:SEE |
| Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. | AMBP | NYSE:AMBP |
| International Paper Company | IP | NYSE:IP |
| AptarGroup, Inc. | ATR | NYSE:ATR |
| Smurfit Westrock Plc | N4U | DB:N4U |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| PKG | SEE | AMBP | IP | ATR | N4U | ||
| NYSE:PKG | NYSE:SEE | NYSE:AMBP | NYSE:IP | NYSE:ATR | DB:N4U | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | -5.8% | 5.7% | 11.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -0.7% | -0.5% | -2.5% | -10.1% | 8.7% | 16.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.5% | -3.9% | 7.2% | -5.5% | 7.2% | 90.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 20.9% | 19.7% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 19.7% | 15.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 20.8% | 19.2% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 20.1% | 16.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 20.0% | 19.4% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 21.6% | 13.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 20.7% | 19.5% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 21.8% | 13.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.26x | 1.67x | 1.21x | 1.80x | 3.17x | 1.45x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.9x | 8.6x | 9.7x | 18.3x | 14.5x | 10.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.6x | 11.2x | 32.3x | 45.2x | 22.0x | 22.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.6x | 10.9x | 18.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 9.7x | 17.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.1x | 8.5x | 8.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,575 | 3,575 | 3,575 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 28,829 | 30,346 | 31,864 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (13,447) | (13,447) | (13,447) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 15,382 | 16,899 | 18,417 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 520.5 | 520.5 | 520.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 29.55 | 32.46 | 35.38 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 26.28 | 28.87 | 31.47 | 40.80 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -35.6% | -29.2% | -22.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | PKG | SEE | AMBP | IP | ATR | N4U | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,260 | 8,900 | 6,118 | 35,826 | 11,238 | 37,326 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 843 | 335 | 177 | 1,156 | 137 | 797 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 71 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,803) | (4,503) | (3,951) | (10,328) | (1,074) | (14,219) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (7) | 0 | (14) | (25) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 17,372 | 4,745 | 2,337 | 26,654 | 10,440 | 23,879 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 89.3 | 147.1 | 597.7 | 527.9 | 66.0 | 520.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 194.44 | 32.27 | 3.91 | 50.49 | 158.08 | 45.87 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.12 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 194.44 | 32.27 | 3.91 | 50.49 | 158.08 | 40.80 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.12 | |