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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8,7x - 9,6x | 9,1x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 8,4x - 9,3x | 8,9x |
Fair Value | €18,61 - €21,82 | €20,21 |
Upside | -16,9% - -2,6% | -9,8% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | MGY | NYSE:MGY |
Kinder Morgan, Inc. | KMI | NYSE:KMI |
Chord Energy Corporation | CHRD | NasdaqGS:CHRD |
EQT Corporation | EQT | NYSE:EQT |
Diamondback Energy, Inc. | FANG | NasdaqGS:FANG |
Murphy Oil Corporation | MUQ | DB:MUQ |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
MGY | KMI | CHRD | EQT | FANG | MUQ | ||
NYSE:MGY | NYSE:KMI | NasdaqGS:CHRD | NYSE:EQT | NasdaqGS:FANG | DB:MUQ | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 32.0% | 2.4% | NM- | -13.5% | 29.6% | 6.0% | |
3Y CAGR | -5.1% | -1.5% | NM- | NM- | 16.3% | 4.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -1.7% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 155.3% | 25.6% | -40.9% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 27.8% | 26.8% | -80.6% | 7.8% | 46.0% | 19.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 43.6% | 27.8% | 37.6% | 50.4% | 54.6% | 30.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 38.9% | 28.8% | 24.3% | 6.8% | 46.2% | 19.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 38.9% | 27.4% | 24.9% | 29.2% | 46.3% | 18.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.56x | 5.42x | 1.43x | 5.66x | 4.84x | 2.01x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.0x | 12.9x | 2.8x | 8.9x | 6.5x | 3.8x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.2x | 19.8x | 5.7x | 19.4x | 10.4x | 10.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.7x | 10.4x | 19.8x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -285.4x | 7.8x | 84.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.7x | 9.1x | 9.6x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 547 | 547 | 547 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,750 | 5,000 | 5,250 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,966) | (1,966) | (1,966) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,783 | 3,033 | 3,283 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 142.7 | 142.7 | 142.7 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 19.50 | 21.26 | 23.01 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 16.84 | 18.35 | 19.86 | 22.40 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -24.8% | -18.1% | -11.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | MGY | KMI | CHRD | EQT | FANG | MUQ | |
Enterprise Value | 4,792 | 86,605 | 7,198 | 40,206 | 59,022 | 5,669 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 248 | 87 | 36 | 555 | 1,816 | 393 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 7,893 | 135 | 3,623 | 432 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (411) | (32,811) | (841) | (8,315) | (14,023) | (2,202) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (56) | (1,311) | 0 | (3,675) | (3,270) | (157) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 4,573 | 60,463 | 6,527 | 32,395 | 43,977 | 3,703 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 186.9 | 2,222.1 | 57.8 | 624.1 | 292.2 | 142.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 24.46 | 27.21 | 113.02 | 51.91 | 150.52 | 25.94 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 24.46 | 27.21 | 113.02 | 51.91 | 150.52 | 22.40 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 |