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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,5x - 0,6x | 0,6x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,5x - 0,6x | 0,5x |
| Fair Value | €3,45 - €3,90 | €3,68 |
| Upside | -19,7% - -9,2% | -14,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Ocado Group plc | OCDO | LSE:OCDO |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. | 0EXG | LSE:0EXG |
| Kesko Oyj | 0BNT | LSE:0BNT |
| Walmart Inc. | 0R1W | LSE:0R1W |
| Colruyt Group N.V. | 0N4Y | LSE:0N4Y |
| Marks and Spencer Group plc | MA6 | DB:MA6 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| OCDO | 0EXG | 0BNT | 0R1W | 0N4Y | MA6 | |||
| LSE:OCDO | LSE:0EXG | LSE:0BNT | LSE:0R1W | LSE:0N4Y | DB:MA6 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -7.1% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -21.4% | 17.0% | 1.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 12.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.9% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -10.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | -20.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.7% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | -20.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -20.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 7.3% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.48x | 0.53x | 0.94x | 1.22x | 0.42x | 0.65x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | -12.3x | 15.7x | 19.0x | 28.5x | 9.3x | 8.9x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.78x | 0.42x | 0.67x | 1.14x | 0.44x | 0.54x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.42x | 0.94x | 2.48x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.47x | 0.51x | 0.64x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.55x | 0.58x | 0.61x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 13,387 | 13,387 | 13,387 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,337 | 7,723 | 8,109 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,428) | (1,428) | (1,428) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 5,909 | 6,295 | 6,681 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,024.1 | 2,024.1 | 2,024.1 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.92 | 3.11 | 3.30 | |||||
| FX Rate: GBP/EUR | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.45 | 3.68 | 3.90 | 4.30 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -19.7% | -14.4% | -9.2% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | OCDO | 0EXG | 0BNT | 0R1W | 0N4Y | MA6 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,424 | 17,843 | 11,261 | 711,187 | 4,521 | 8,783 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 733 | 1,605 | 148 | 9,037 | 978 | 780 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 694 | 0 | 257 | 4,241 | 297 | 671 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,698) | (5,193) | (3,561) | (62,113) | (1,002) | (2,884) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 15 | (228) | (16) | (6,679) | 0 | 5 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,166 | 14,027 | 8,089 | 655,673 | 4,793 | 7,355 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 824.9 | 628.4 | 398.1 | 11,001.2 | 124.5 | 2,024.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.63 | 22.32 | 20.32 | 59.60 | 38.50 | 3.63 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.85 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.63 | 22.32 | 20.32 | 59.60 | 38.50 | 4.30 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | EUR | EUR | USD | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.85 | |