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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,7x - 0,8x | 0,7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,7x - 0,7x | 0,7x |
| Fair Value | €5,01 - €6,36 | €5,68 |
| Upside | 10,7% - 40,6% | 25,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Asahi Kasei Corporation | 3407 | TSE:3407 |
| Teijin Limited | 3401 | TSE:3401 |
| Kaneka Corporation | 4118 | TSE:4118 |
| Nitto Denko Corporation | 6988 | TSE:6988 |
| Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd. | 4114 | TSE:4114 |
| Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation | M3C | DB:M3C |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 3407 | 3401 | 4118 | 6988 | 4114 | M3C | |||
| TSE:3407 | TSE:3401 | TSE:4118 | TSE:6988 | TSE:4114 | DB:M3C | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.1% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 7.3% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.1% | -2.6% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 0.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 14.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.1% | 1.3% | 4.1% | 14.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.0% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 18.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.0% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 18.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.68x | 0.50x | 0.47x | 1.44x | 0.53x | 0.66x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.8x | 30.7x | 9.8x | 7.9x | 11.4x | 15.5x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.45x | 0.22x | 0.31x | 1.80x | 0.61x | 0.25x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.47x | 0.53x | 1.44x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.66x | 0.72x | 0.98x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.69x | 0.72x | 0.76x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 4,407,405 | 4,407,405 | 4,407,405 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,022,232 | 3,181,297 | 3,340,361 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,822,341) | (1,822,341) | (1,822,341) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,199,891 | 1,358,956 | 1,518,020 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,423.2 | 1,423.2 | 1,423.2 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 843.10 | 954.87 | 1,066.64 | |||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 163.4 | 163.4 | 163.4 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.16 | 5.85 | 6.53 | 4.52 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 14.1% | 29.2% | 44.4% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3407 | 3401 | 4118 | 6988 | 4114 | M3C | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,066,849 | 503,055 | 383,295 | 1,452,152 | 217,665 | 2,873,839 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 393,467 | 107,500 | 45,639 | 363,344 | 54,565 | 392,247 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 168,371 | 0 | 61,686 | 7,319 | 30,040 | 370,398 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,195,045) | (387,100) | (223,058) | (455) | (41,391) | (2,040,987) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (54,523) | 0 | (20,482) | (1,031) | (9,505) | (543,999) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,379,119 | 223,455 | 247,080 | 1,821,329 | 251,374 | 1,051,498 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,358.1 | 192.7 | 62.9 | 688.5 | 151.3 | 1,423.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,015.50 | 1,159.50 | 3,926.00 | 2,645.50 | 1,661.00 | 738.83 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 163.35 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,015.50 | 1,159.50 | 3,926.00 | 2,645.50 | 1,661.00 | 4.52 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 163.35 | |