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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6,1x - 6,8x | 6,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4,8x - 5,3x | 5,0x |
| Fair Value | €4,87 - €6,21 | €5,54 |
| Upside | 7,7% - 37,2% | 22,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Asahi Kasei Corporation | 3407 | TSE:3407 |
| Teijin Limited | 3401 | TSE:3401 |
| Kaneka Corporation | 4118 | TSE:4118 |
| Nitto Denko Corporation | 6988 | TSE:6988 |
| Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd. | 4114 | TSE:4114 |
| Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation | M3C | DB:M3C |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 3407 | 3401 | 4118 | 6988 | 4114 | M3C | ||
| TSE:3407 | TSE:3401 | TSE:4118 | TSE:6988 | TSE:4114 | DB:M3C | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.1% | -4.0% | 6.9% | 16.7% | 4.7% | 1.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 4.3% | -8.2% | 0.6% | 12.3% | -4.0% | -2.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 23.3% | -5.4% | 14.9% | 27.9% | 2.6% | -11.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 20.8% | 13.1% | 12.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 11.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 21.5% | 12.6% | 11.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 24.8% | 12.4% | 10.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 24.8% | 12.4% | 10.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.68x | 0.50x | 0.47x | 1.44x | 0.53x | 0.66x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 5.8x | 4.6x | 5.8x | 4.3x | 6.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.8x | 30.7x | 9.8x | 7.9x | 11.4x | 15.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.3x | 5.2x | 5.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.3x | 6.3x | 11.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 6.4x | 6.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 464,560 | 464,560 | 464,560 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,845,654 | 2,995,425 | 3,145,196 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,822,341) | (1,822,341) | (1,822,341) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,023,313 | 1,173,084 | 1,322,855 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,423.2 | 1,423.2 | 1,423.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 719.03 | 824.27 | 929.50 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 163.4 | 163.4 | 163.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.40 | 5.05 | 5.69 | 4.52 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -2.7% | 11.6% | 25.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3407 | 3401 | 4118 | 6988 | 4114 | M3C | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,066,849 | 503,055 | 383,295 | 1,452,152 | 217,665 | 2,873,839 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 393,467 | 107,500 | 45,639 | 363,344 | 54,565 | 392,247 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 168,371 | 0 | 61,686 | 7,319 | 30,040 | 370,398 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,195,045) | (387,100) | (223,058) | (455) | (41,391) | (2,040,987) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (54,523) | 0 | (20,482) | (1,031) | (9,505) | (543,999) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,379,119 | 223,455 | 247,080 | 1,821,329 | 251,374 | 1,051,498 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,358.1 | 192.7 | 62.9 | 688.5 | 151.3 | 1,423.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,015.50 | 1,159.50 | 3,926.00 | 2,645.50 | 1,661.00 | 738.83 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 163.35 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,015.50 | 1,159.50 | 3,926.00 | 2,645.50 | 1,661.00 | 4.52 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 163.35 | |