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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 14,1x - 15,6x | 14,8x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 10,3x - 11,4x | 10,8x |
Fair Value | €48,81 - €55,36 | €52,08 |
Upside | 16,6% - 32,2% | 24,4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | MCRI | NasdaqGS:MCRI |
Choice Hotels International, Inc. | CHH | NYSE:CHH |
Marriott International, Inc. | MAR | NasdaqGS:MAR |
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | RRR | NasdaqGS:RRR |
Travel + Leisure Co. | TNL | NYSE:TNL |
Las Vegas Sands Corp. | LCR | DB:LCR |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
MCRI | CHH | MAR | RRR | TNL | LCR | ||
NasdaqGS:MCRI | NYSE:CHH | NasdaqGS:MAR | NasdaqGS:RRR | NYSE:TNL | DB:LCR | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 25.9% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 9.3% | -1.8% | -3.4% | |
3Y CAGR | 9.0% | 4.3% | 27.4% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 114.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 9.1% | 14.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | -6.3% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 31.1% | 62.7% | 60.5% | 39.7% | 21.1% | 17.0% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 32.6% | 63.3% | 67.8% | 41.9% | 22.9% | 34.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 33.0% | 66.8% | 64.3% | 39.3% | 22.4% | 33.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 33.9% | 66.8% | 64.9% | 39.3% | 22.5% | 32.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.53x | 10.05x | 13.48x | 3.39x | 2.42x | 4.04x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.4x | 15.0x | 20.8x | 8.6x | 10.7x | 12.3x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 14.7x | 16.5x | 22.9x | 11.5x | 12.4x | 19.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.6x | 10.7x | 20.8x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.2x | 69.5x | 154.1x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.1x | 14.8x | 15.6x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 3,689 | 3,689 | 3,689 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 51,909 | 54,641 | 57,373 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (11,149) | (11,149) | (11,149) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 40,760 | 43,492 | 46,224 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 706.6 | 706.6 | 706.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 57.68 | 61.55 | 65.42 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 49.09 | 52.38 | 55.67 | 41.88 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 17.2% | 25.1% | 32.9% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | MCRI | CHH | MAR | RRR | TNL | LCR | |
Enterprise Value | 1,888 | 8,013 | 89,796 | 6,595 | 9,394 | 45,919 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 72 | 40 | 523 | 151 | 188 | 3,036 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 122 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (14) | (1,987) | (15,851) | (3,406) | (5,741) | (13,851) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (123) | 0 | (334) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,946 | 6,188 | 74,768 | 3,218 | 3,841 | 34,770 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 18.2 | 46.1 | 273.9 | 59.3 | 66.4 | 706.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 106.70 | 134.36 | 272.98 | 54.26 | 57.85 | 49.21 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 106.70 | 134.36 | 272.98 | 54.26 | 57.85 | 41.88 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 |