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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8,2x - 9,0x | 8,6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9,0x - 9,9x | 9,5x |
| Fair Value | €1,03 - €1,17 | €1,10 |
| Upside | 10,0% - 25,2% | 17,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| CTS International Logistics Corporation Limited | 603128 | SHSE:603128 |
| Bondex Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. | 603836 | SHSE:603836 |
| Sinotrans Limited | 598 | SEHK:598 |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | EXPD | NYSE:EXPD |
| Dimerco Express Corporation | 5609 | TPEX:5609 |
| KLN Logistics Group Limited | KYL | DB:KYL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 603128 | 603836 | 598 | EXPD | 5609 | KYL | ||
| SHSE:603128 | SHSE:603836 | SEHK:598 | NYSE:EXPD | TPEX:5609 | DB:KYL | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.4% | 1.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 15.0% | 1.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -20.5% | -46.3% | -2.6% | -18.3% | -27.8% | -20.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -7.0% | 26.3% | -6.4% | 24.3% | 2.8% | 23.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.42x | 0.21x | 0.26x | 1.36x | 0.20x | 0.36x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.6x | 17.8x | 7.0x | 13.1x | 5.5x | 6.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 14.0x | 21.7x | 11.4x | 13.8x | 5.8x | 7.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.8x | 13.8x | 21.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 5.4x | 7.8x | 12.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.2x | 8.6x | 9.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 2,716 | 2,716 | 2,716 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 22,226 | 23,395 | 24,565 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,339) | (5,339) | (5,339) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 16,886 | 18,056 | 19,226 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,807.4 | 1,807.4 | 1,807.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.34 | 9.99 | 10.64 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/EUR | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.03 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 0.94 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 9.9% | 17.5% | 25.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 603128 | 603836 | 598 | EXPD | 5609 | KYL | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,519 | 2,158 | 33,074 | 15,070 | 6,036 | 20,704 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,858 | 1,367 | 11,368 | 1,319 | 5,139 | 6,578 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 748 | 60 | 11,206 | 0 | 284 | 1,898 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,458) | (747) | (11,497) | (588) | (506) | (11,492) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (120) | (36) | (2,543) | (2) | (115) | (2,323) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 8,548 | 2,801 | 41,607 | 15,798 | 10,837 | 15,365 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,309.0 | 201.9 | 10,024.1 | 136.9 | 140.7 | 1,807.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6.53 | 13.87 | 4.15 | 115.36 | 77.00 | 8.50 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.09 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 6.53 | 13.87 | 4.54 | 115.36 | 77.00 | 0.94 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | HKD | USD | TWD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.09 | |