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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12,2x - 13,5x | 12,8x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 13,1x - 14,4x | 13,7x |
Fair Value | €14,78 - €16,10 | €15,44 |
Upside | 4,1% - 13,4% | 8,7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
GSK plc | GLAX.F | OTCPK:GLAX.F |
Merck & Co., Inc. | MRK | NYSE:MRK |
Roche Holding AG | RHHV.F | OTCPK:RHHV.F |
Seikagaku Corporation | 4548 | TSE:4548 |
Tsumura & Co. | 4540 | TSE:4540 |
Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. | KY4 | DB:KY4 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
GLAX.F | MRK | RHHV.F | 4548 | 4540 | KY4 | ||
OTCPK:GLAX.F | NYSE:MRK | OTCPK:RHHV.F | TSE:4548 | TSE:4540 | DB:KY4 | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -5.5% | 18.5% | -1.4% | -7.4% | 16.3% | 11.6% | |
3Y CAGR | 3.2% | 21.5% | -1.1% | -33.3% | 21.5% | 14.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -28.4% | 39.3% | 10.3% | 208.1% | 100.4% | -13.7% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 24.6% | 31.5% | 31.2% | 6.3% | 16.1% | 18.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 27.7% | 26.6% | 29.4% | 1.2% | 13.3% | 21.7% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 19.7% | 38.8% | 31.4% | 3.4% | 22.2% | 18.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 19.8% | 38.2% | 31.4% | 3.4% | 22.2% | 17.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.33x | 3.42x | 3.79x | 0.43x | 1.51x | 2.10x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.5x | 7.6x | 10.4x | 5.1x | 5.3x | 9.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 11.8x | 9.0x | 12.0x | 12.7x | 6.8x | 12.2x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.8x | 11.8x | 12.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 8.6x | 17.4x | 25.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.2x | 12.8x | 13.5x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 84,906 | 84,906 | 84,906 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,035,090 | 1,089,569 | 1,144,047 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 195,276 | 195,276 | 195,276 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,230,366 | 1,284,845 | 1,339,323 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 523.4 | 523.4 | 523.4 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 2,350.86 | 2,454.95 | 2,559.04 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 163.4 | 163.4 | 163.4 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 14.39 | 15.03 | 15.67 | 14.20 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 1.3% | 5.8% | 10.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | GLAX.F | MRK | RHHV.F | 4548 | 4540 | KY4 | |
Enterprise Value | 72,349 | 216,836 | 234,182 | (5,726) | 273,195 | 1,018,718 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,485 | 9,228 | 17,333 | 18,724 | 73,227 | 214,370 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,032 | 1,793 | 858 | 22,639 | 10,276 | 3,399 | |
(-) Debt | (18,432) | (34,844) | (36,379) | (380) | (70,336) | (22,493) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 503 | (65) | (4,394) | 0 | (29,579) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 59,937 | 192,948 | 211,600 | 35,257 | 256,783 | 1,213,994 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 4,055.0 | 2,511.0 | 795.4 | 54.6 | 75.2 | 523.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 14.78 | 76.84 | 266.03 | 646.00 | 3,413.00 | 2,319.58 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 163.35 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 19.92 | 76.84 | 323.35 | 646.00 | 3,413.00 | 14.20 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | JPY | JPY | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 163.35 |