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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8,2x - 9,1x | 8,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,1x - 5,7x | 5,4x |
| Fair Value | €4,01 - €4,79 | €4,40 |
| Upside | -22,1% - -7,0% | -14,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. | 5019 | TSE:5019 |
| Shell plc | SHELL | ENXTAM:SHELL |
| TotalEnergies SE | TTFN.F | OTCPK:TTFN.F |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation | 386 | SEHK:386 |
| Phillips 66 | PSX | NYSE:PSX |
| ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | JHJ | DB:JHJ |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 5019 | SHELL | TTFN.F | 386 | PSX | JHJ | ||
| TSE:5019 | ENXTAM:SHELL | OTCPK:TTFN.F | SEHK:386 | NYSE:PSX | DB:JHJ | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 21.5% | 0.0% | 4.8% | -0.8% | -2.0% | 16.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -21.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% | -6.4% | 25.9% | -14.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -76.9% | -15.6% | -17.7% | -20.4% | -52.2% | -51.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.0% | 18.4% | 20.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 6.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.2% | 18.3% | 20.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 2.9% | 18.7% | 19.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NA | 17.8% | 19.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.23x | 0.84x | 0.70x | 0.31x | 0.46x | 0.33x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.7x | 4.7x | 3.7x | 6.3x | 15.9x | 10.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 109.7x | 7.6x | 5.9x | 17.8x | 38.3x | 198.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.7x | 6.3x | 16.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.2x | 6.2x | 15.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.2x | 8.7x | 9.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 377,444 | 377,444 | 377,444 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,112,282 | 3,276,086 | 3,439,891 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,570,874) | (1,570,874) | (1,570,874) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,541,408 | 1,705,212 | 1,869,017 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,690.1 | 2,690.1 | 2,690.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 573.00 | 633.89 | 694.78 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 173.2 | 173.2 | 173.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.31 | 3.66 | 4.01 | 5.15 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -35.8% | -28.9% | -22.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 5019 | SHELL | TTFN.F | 386 | PSX | JHJ | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,046,576 | 229,043 | 131,425 | 923,101 | 60,745 | 3,970,420 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 126,201 | 32,682 | 25,607 | 162,334 | 1,052 | 853,711 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 297,977 | 25,681 | 41,524 | 258,251 | 13,125 | 628,691 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,220,643) | (75,675) | (63,082) | (529,870) | (20,935) | (2,712,177) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (24,250) | (1,951) | (2,360) | (156,948) | (1,136) | (341,099) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,225,861 | 209,780 | 133,114 | 656,868 | 52,851 | 2,399,546 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,224.6 | 5,830.2 | 2,179.0 | 169,588.4 | 404.1 | 2,690.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,001.00 | 35.98 | 61.09 | 3.87 | 130.78 | 892.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 173.20 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,001.00 | 30.66 | 61.09 | 4.23 | 130.78 | 5.15 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | EUR | USD | HKD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 173.20 | |