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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3,9x - 4,3x | 4,1x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4,6x - 5,1x | 4,8x |
Fair Value | €10,93 - €12,27 | €11,60 |
Upside | -0,7% - 11,5% | 5,4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | 7267 | TSE:7267 |
Toyota Motor Corporation | 7203 | TSE:7203 |
Beiqi Foton Motor Co.,Ltd. | 600166 | SHSE:600166 |
Tata Motors Limited | 500570 | BSE:500570 |
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft | BAMX.F | OTCPK:BAMX.F |
Isuzu Motors Limited | ISU | DB:ISU |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
7267 | 7203 | 600166 | 500570 | BAMX.F | ISU | ||
TSE:7267 | TSE:7203 | SHSE:600166 | BSE:500570 | OTCPK:BAMX.F | DB:ISU | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 4.6% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 33.5% | 6.1% | 11.9% | |
3Y CAGR | 4.1% | 13.5% | 5.7% | 52.1% | -1.1% | 9.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -10.6% | 0.3% | -28.5% | -0.4% | -29.5% | -6.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 8.5% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 7.8% | 13.3% | 11.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 9.1% | 15.6% | 3.6% | 10.8% | 15.5% | 12.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 7.7% | 14.7% | 3.4% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 7.7% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.54x | 0.58x | 0.23x | 0.60x | 1.05x | 0.48x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 3.9x | 7.7x | 5.6x | 9.1x | 4.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.7x | 5.8x | 16.1x | 7.4x | 14.2x | 6.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.9x | 7.0x | 9.1x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 4.0x | 5.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.9x | 4.1x | 4.3x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 384,483 | 384,483 | 384,483 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,485,859 | 1,564,062 | 1,642,265 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (218,985) | (218,985) | (218,985) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,266,874 | 1,345,077 | 1,423,280 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 710.8 | 710.8 | 710.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 1,782.26 | 1,892.27 | 2,002.29 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 173.4 | 173.4 | 173.4 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 10.28 | 10.91 | 11.55 | 11.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -6.6% | -0.8% | 5.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 7267 | 7203 | 600166 | 500570 | BAMX.F | ISU | |
Enterprise Value | 11,844,870 | 28,361,926 | 11,451 | 2,630,350 | 147,704 | 1,574,678 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,737,273 | 8,982,404 | 10,952 | 674,280 | 16,810 | 358,711 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 2,116,073 | 38,724,779 | 4,735 | 87,250 | 1,595 | 345,943 | |
(-) Debt | (11,774,190) | (38,792,879) | (4,717) | (770,700) | (108,495) | (758,843) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (301,293) | (954,088) | (173) | (66,100) | (2,723) | (164,796) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (24,640) | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 6,622,733 | 36,322,142 | 22,248 | 2,530,440 | 54,891 | 1,355,693 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 4,085.6 | 13,032.7 | 7,917.4 | 3,681.7 | 617.0 | 710.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 1,621.00 | 2,787.00 | 2.81 | 687.30 | 88.97 | 1,907.21 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 173.38 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,621.00 | 2,787.00 | 2.81 | 687.30 | 104.50 | 11.00 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | CNY | INR | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 173.38 |