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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 29,7x - 32,8x | 31,2x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9,1x - 10,0x | 9,5x |
Fair Value | €24,23 - €28,37 | €26,30 |
Upside | -38,8% - -28,3% | -33,5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Packaging Corporation of America | PKG | NYSE:PKG |
Sealed Air Corporation | SEE | NYSE:SEE |
Silgan Holdings Inc. | SLGN | NYSE:SLGN |
Sonoco Products Company | SON | NYSE:SON |
AptarGroup, Inc. | ATR | NYSE:ATR |
International Paper Company | INP | DB:INP |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
PKG | SEE | SLGN | SON | ATR | INP | ||
NYSE:PKG | NYSE:SEE | NYSE:SLGN | NYSE:SON | NYSE:ATR | DB:INP | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 1.5% | 3.2% | 7.7% | 0.4% | 5.4% | -10.7% | |
3Y CAGR | -3.9% | -2.8% | 0.4% | NM- | 11.5% | -16.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 17.5% | -5.4% | 4.9% | 21.0% | 8.6% | -22.9% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 15.1% | 15.9% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 7.5% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 14.4% | 15.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 6.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 13.8% | 14.9% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 5.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 14.5% | 15.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 4.0% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.17x | 1.62x | 1.67x | 2.02x | 3.02x | 1.68x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.5x | 8.3x | 11.0x | 11.7x | 13.8x | 17.0x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 15.0x | 10.8x | 16.2x | 19.8x | 21.0x | 42.2x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 10.8x | 16.2x | 21.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 9.2x | 14.6x | 24.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 29.7x | 31.2x | 32.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 791 | 791 | 791 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 23,472 | 24,707 | 25,943 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (9,172) | (9,172) | (9,172) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 14,300 | 15,535 | 16,771 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 527.9 | 527.9 | 527.9 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 27.09 | 29.43 | 31.77 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 23.52 | 25.55 | 27.58 | 39.57 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -40.6% | -35.4% | -30.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | PKG | SEE | SLGN | SON | ATR | INP | |
Enterprise Value | 18,583 | 8,611 | 10,047 | 10,078 | 10,724 | 33,235 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 843 | 335 | 353 | 182 | 137 | 1,156 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 71 | 14 | 0 | 1,461 | 153 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (2,803) | (4,503) | (4,629) | (7,461) | (1,074) | (10,328) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (14) | (14) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 16,695 | 4,457 | 5,771 | 4,246 | 9,926 | 24,063 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 89.3 | 147.1 | 107.0 | 98.6 | 66.0 | 527.9 | |
Implied Stock Price | 186.86 | 30.31 | 53.94 | 43.05 | 150.30 | 45.58 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.15 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 186.86 | 30.31 | 53.94 | 43.05 | 150.30 | 39.57 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.15 |