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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3,3x - 3,7x | 3,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3,5x - 3,9x | 3,7x |
| Fair Value | €0,017 - €0,030 | €0,024 |
| Upside | 4,9% - 90,1% | 47,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Global Strategic Group Limited | 8007 | SEHK:8007 |
| Beijing Gas Blue Sky Holdings Limited | 6828 | SEHK:6828 |
| Binhai Investment Company Limited | 2886 | SEHK:2886 |
| China Gas Holdings Limited | 384 | SEHK:384 |
| Guangdong Investment Limited | 270 | SEHK:270 |
| China Oil And Gas Group Limited | GPI1 | DB:GPI1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 8007 | 6828 | 2886 | 384 | 270 | GPI1 | ||
| SEHK:8007 | SEHK:6828 | SEHK:2886 | SEHK:384 | SEHK:270 | DB:GPI1 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 8.1% | -9.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -5.8% | -11.0% | -1.8% | -1.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 195.5% | -836.4% | -17.9% | 4.6% | 24.7% | 20.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 36.9% | 13.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -0.7% | 0.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 44.8% | 9.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.3% | -1.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 50.2% | 11.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.8% | -1.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 50.1% | 11.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.04x | 0.64x | 0.72x | 1.02x | 3.92x | 0.39x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.8x | -39.6x | 7.3x | 9.4x | 7.8x | 3.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 33.3x | -10.9x | 10.9x | 14.1x | 10.6x | 5.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -39.6x | 7.8x | 9.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.7x | 3.4x | 7.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 3.5x | 3.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 2,097 | 2,097 | 2,097 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,969 | 7,335 | 7,702 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6,107) | (6,107) | (6,107) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 862 | 1,228 | 1,595 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,943.6 | 5,943.6 | 5,943.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.27 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/EUR | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -0.5% | 41.9% | 84.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 8007 | 6828 | 2886 | 384 | 270 | GPI1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 289 | 1,121 | 4,452 | 80,662 | 57,425 | 6,973 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 13 | 360 | 387 | 8,909 | 12,154 | 4,348 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1,993 | 322 | 22,361 | 0 | 1,675 | |
| (-) Debt | (157) | (2,348) | (3,342) | (60,449) | (24,664) | (8,575) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (100) | (124) | (82) | (6,862) | 0 | (3,554) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | (144) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 45 | 1,002 | 1,593 | 44,620 | 44,915 | 866 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 188.6 | 22,736.1 | 1,373.7 | 5,448.2 | 6,537.8 | 5,943.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.24 | 0.04 | 1.16 | 8.19 | 6.87 | 0.15 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.10 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.24 | 0.05 | 1.16 | 8.19 | 6.87 | 0.02 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.10 | |