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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 1,7x - 1,9x | 1,8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 1,8x - 2,0x | 1,9x |
| Fair Value | €20,50 - €21,14 | €20,82 |
| Upside | 25,0% - 28,9% | 26,9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft | BAMX.F | OTCPK:BAMX.F |
| Volkswagen AG | VLKA.F | OTCPK:VLKA.F |
| Mazda Motor Corporation | 7261 | TSE:7261 |
| Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. | 7272 | TSE:7272 |
| Suzuki Motor Corporation | 7269 | TSE:7269 |
| Subaru Corporation | FUH | DB:FUH |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| BAMX.F | VLKA.F | 7261 | 7272 | 7269 | FUH | ||
| OTCPK:BAMX.F | OTCPK:VLKA.F | TSE:7261 | TSE:7272 | TSE:7269 | DB:FUH | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.3% | 3.7% | 33.7% | 9.7% | 24.5% | 13.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -5.7% | 5.9% | 21.3% | 0.2% | 49.7% | 62.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -39.1% | -7.3% | -25.7% | -41.3% | 38.1% | -14.8% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.5% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 11.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 10.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.9% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 8.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 11.0% | 8.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.02x | 0.82x | 0.02x | 0.50x | 0.44x | 0.05x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.8x | 9.0x | 0.4x | 5.4x | 2.9x | 0.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.6x | 12.6x | 0.6x | 8.5x | 4.0x | 0.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 0.6x | 8.5x | 13.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 0.6x | 3.7x | 8.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 1.7x | 1.8x | 1.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 405,298 | 405,298 | 405,298 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 695,649 | 732,262 | 768,875 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,711,034 | 1,711,034 | 1,711,034 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,406,683 | 2,443,296 | 2,479,909 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 731.0 | 731.0 | 731.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3,292.16 | 3,342.25 | 3,392.33 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 162.4 | 162.4 | 162.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 20.27 | 20.58 | 20.89 | 16.40 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 23.6% | 25.5% | 27.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | BAMX.F | VLKA.F | 7261 | 7272 | 7269 | FUH | |
| Enterprise Value | 140,885 | 267,593 | (161,828) | 1,268,157 | 2,569,247 | 235,962 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 16,810 | 49,987 | 1,207,379 | 360,756 | 842,710 | 1,960,929 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,595 | 0 | 271,063 | 497,745 | 1,499,589 | 150,796 | |
| (-) Debt | (108,495) | (252,054) | (722,999) | (1,016,027) | (725,299) | (399,500) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,723) | (15,541) | (17,349) | (59,387) | (717,410) | (1,191) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 48,072 | 49,985 | 576,266 | 1,051,244 | 3,468,837 | 1,946,996 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 622.3 | 501.3 | 630.3 | 969.3 | 1,929.3 | 731.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 77.25 | 99.71 | 914.20 | 1,084.50 | 1,798.00 | 2,663.35 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 162.40 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 87.55 | 113.00 | 914.20 | 1,084.50 | 1,798.00 | 16.40 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | JPY | JPY | JPY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 162.40 | |