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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9,1x - 10,1x | 9,6x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,8x - 6,4x | 6,1x |
Fair Value | €38,05 - €43,09 | €40,57 |
Upside | -2,7% - 10,2% | 3,7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Alcoa Corporation | AA | NYSE:AA |
Southern Copper Corporation | SCCO | NYSE:SCCO |
Nickel Industries Limited | NICM.F | OTCPK:NICM.F |
Anglo American plc | AAUK.F | OTCPK:AAUK.F |
Hudbay Minerals Inc. | HBM | NYSE:HBM |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | FPMB | DB:FPMB |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
AA | SCCO | NICM.F | AAUK.F | HBM | FPMB | ||
NYSE:AA | NYSE:SCCO | OTCPK:NICM.F | OTCPK:AAUK.F | NYSE:HBM | DB:FPMB | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 1.4% | 12.8% | 7.8% | -3.0% | 13.3% | 33.5% | |
3Y CAGR | -17.1% | -2.2% | 6.6% | -27.2% | 27.7% | -3.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 206.7% | 38.7% | -32.9% | -12.0% | 12.8% | 3.7% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 13.9% | 54.0% | 27.9% | 35.8% | 37.8% | 37.3% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 5.3% | 51.1% | 22.1% | 28.2% | 42.0% | 37.3% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 13.2% | 56.2% | 16.0% | 27.9% | 42.4% | 37.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 17.8% | 56.8% | 16.0% | 27.9% | 44.0% | 36.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.67x | 7.09x | 1.35x | 1.95x | 2.32x | 3.31x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 12.5x | 8.5x | 7.0x | 5.3x | 9.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 5.2x | 14.4x | 15.6x | 10.8x | 10.1x | 12.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 7.0x | 12.5x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.5x | 7.8x | 18.1x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.1x | 9.6x | 10.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 9,076 | 9,076 | 9,076 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 82,682 | 87,034 | 91,385 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (16,545) | (16,545) | (16,545) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 66,137 | 70,489 | 74,840 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,436.2 | 1,436.2 | 1,436.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 46.05 | 49.08 | 52.11 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 39.11 | 41.69 | 44.26 | 39.11 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 13.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | AA | SCCO | NICM.F | AAUK.F | HBM | FPMB | |
Enterprise Value | 8,538 | 84,661 | 2,354 | 52,087 | 4,814 | 82,674 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,514 | 4,335 | 211 | 8,203 | 583 | 4,385 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,016 | 115 | 1,230 | 987 | 34 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (2,657) | (7,968) | (1,055) | (18,972) | (1,261) | (9,404) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (100) | (68) | (432) | (7,773) | (93) | (11,526) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 8,311 | 81,074 | 2,309 | 34,532 | 4,076 | 66,129 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 258.9 | 804.1 | 4,340.9 | 1,079.1 | 395.0 | 1,436.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 32.10 | 100.83 | 0.53 | 32.00 | 10.32 | 46.04 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 32.10 | 100.83 | 0.53 | 32.00 | 10.32 | 39.11 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 |