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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 11,9x - 13,1x | 12,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10,3x - 11,4x | 10,8x |
| Fair Value | €41,41 - €47,46 | €44,43 |
| Upside | 4,4% - 19,7% | 12,0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A. | C7T | DB:C7T |
| Logista Integral, S.A. | 5CI | DB:5CI |
| Österreichische Post AG | O3P | XTRA:O3P |
| Ferrari Group PLC | 46 | DB:046 |
| Hub Group, Inc. | HBG | DB:HBG |
| Deutsche Post AG | DHL | DB:DHL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| C7T | 5CI | O3P | 46 | HBG | DHL | ||
| DB:C7T | DB:5CI | XTRA:O3P | DB:046 | DB:HBG | DB:DHL | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 22.2% | 10.0% | -1.3% | NM- | -2.0% | 13.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 49.7% | 10.6% | 1.7% | 9.8% | -13.5% | -11.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 41.6% | 2.8% | 6.6% | -0.3% | -16.1% | -4.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.8% | 2.3% | 6.3% | 20.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.5% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 21.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.0% | 2.5% | 5.6% | 20.7% | 3.6% | 6.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.3% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 20.7% | 3.7% | 6.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | -0.52x | 0.10x | 0.88x | 2.20x | 0.67x | 0.74x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -3.8x | 3.2x | 9.5x | 9.9x | 7.7x | 8.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -4.2x | 4.1x | 16.3x | 10.6x | 18.0x | 11.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -4.2x | 10.6x | 18.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 6.9x | 10.9x | 22.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 11.9x | 12.5x | 13.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 5,378 | 5,378 | 5,378 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 63,769 | 67,126 | 70,482 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (18,250) | (18,250) | (18,250) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 45,519 | 48,876 | 52,232 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,133.2 | 1,133.2 | 1,133.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 40.17 | 43.13 | 46.09 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 40.17 | 43.13 | 46.09 | 39.66 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 1.3% | 8.7% | 16.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | C7T | 5CI | O3P | 46 | HBG | DHL | |
| Enterprise Value | (1,463) | 1,310 | 2,707 | 763 | 2,549 | 63,194 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,580 | 2,368 | 119 | 125 | 113 | 7,252 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 366 | 43 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1,493 | |
| (-) Debt | (476) | (64) | (745) | (38) | (485) | (26,554) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (64) | 0 | 0 | (12) | (48) | (441) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 944 | 3,657 | 2,081 | 850 | 2,128 | 44,944 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 128.4 | 132.0 | 67.6 | 91.3 | 61.2 | 1,133.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.35 | 27.70 | 30.80 | 9.31 | 34.75 | 39.66 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.35 | 27.70 | 30.80 | 9.31 | 30.40 | 39.66 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.00 | |