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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8,3x - 9,2x | 8,8x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,3x - 5,9x | 5,6x |
Fair Value | €0,43 - €0,75 | €0,59 |
Upside | -16,0% - 45,3% | 14,6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
BBMG Corporation | 2009 | SEHK:2009 |
Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 914 | SEHK:914 |
Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd. | 6655 | SEHK:6655 |
China West Construction Group Co., Ltd | 2302 | SZSE:002302 |
Huaibei GreenGold Industry Investment Co., Ltd. | 2450 | SEHK:2450 |
China National Building Material Company Limited | D1Y | DB:D1Y |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
2009 | 914 | 6655 | 2302 | 2450 | D1Y | ||
SEHK:2009 | SEHK:914 | SEHK:6655 | SZSE:002302 | SEHK:2450 | DB:D1Y | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -20.3% | -18.6% | -6.6% | -29.3% | -14.1% | -14.8% | |
3Y CAGR | -26.9% | -28.1% | -8.2% | -44.8% | -16.4% | -23.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 50.9% | -3.9% | -6.2% | -93.4% | -28.6% | -12.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 8.1% | 21.5% | 26.3% | 5.1% | 60.5% | 15.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 4.1% | 13.7% | 23.6% | 5.8% | 61.5% | 12.6% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 4.3% | 18.7% | 21.8% | 1.3% | 54.0% | 12.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 4.1% | 19.9% | 22.6% | 0.4% | 54.0% | 12.6% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.15x | 1.04x | 1.40x | 0.53x | 8.17x | 1.05x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 28.2x | 5.2x | 6.2x | 126.7x | 15.1x | 8.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -3654.5x | 10.2x | 11.2x | -48.3x | 30.9x | 22.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 15.1x | 126.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.9x | 6.8x | 9.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.3x | 8.8x | 9.2x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 22,739 | 22,739 | 22,739 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 189,204 | 199,163 | 209,121 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (160,282) | (160,282) | (160,282) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 28,922 | 38,880 | 48,838 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 7,593.0 | 7,593.0 | 7,593.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 3.81 | 5.12 | 6.43 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/EUR | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.78 | 0.51 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -10.0% | 21.0% | 52.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 2009 | 914 | 6655 | 2302 | 2450 | D1Y | |
Enterprise Value | 135,839 | 104,784 | 53,419 | 10,628 | 1,961 | 192,404 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 18,890 | 64,449 | 6,365 | 2,160 | 323 | 38,513 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 11,098 | 9,581 | 1,552 | 298 | 0 | 35,075 | |
(-) Debt | (130,725) | (29,139) | (21,444) | (3,591) | (1,360) | (157,592) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (17,904) | (12,402) | (4,432) | (1,227) | (234) | (76,278) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 17,197 | 137,274 | 35,460 | 8,268 | 689 | 32,121 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 22,083.7 | 6,362.7 | 2,936.7 | 1,262.4 | 264.0 | 7,593.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 0.78 | 21.57 | 12.07 | 6.55 | 2.61 | 4.23 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 8.22 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.85 | 23.55 | 13.18 | 6.55 | 2.85 | 0.51 | |
Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | CNY | HKD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 8.22 |