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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,1x - 7,9x | 7,5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,1x - 5,6x | 5,3x |
Fair Value | €34,19 - €38,15 | €36,17 |
Upside | -22,3% - -13,3% | -17,8% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Ryerson Holding Corporation | RYI | NYSE:RYI |
Materion Corporation | MTRN | NYSE:MTRN |
Steel Dynamics, Inc. | STLD | NasdaqGS:STLD |
Nucor Corporation | NUE | NYSE:NUE |
Olympic Steel, Inc. | ZEUS | NasdaqGS:ZEUS |
Commercial Metals Company | CMS | DB:CMS |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
RYI | MTRN | STLD | NUE | ZEUS | CMS | ||
NYSE:RYI | NYSE:MTRN | NasdaqGS:STLD | NYSE:NUE | NasdaqGS:ZEUS | DB:CMS | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -14.8% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 17.0% | 16.6% | |
3Y CAGR | -38.9% | 17.4% | -19.5% | -24.8% | -26.0% | 6.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -49.4% | 9.1% | -44.1% | -49.6% | -33.6% | -35.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 6.1% | 9.7% | 19.0% | 20.6% | 5.0% | 13.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 5.7% | 12.2% | 19.1% | 21.3% | 5.1% | 15.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 2.4% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 4.0% | 11.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 2.6% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 8.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.36x | 1.34x | 1.32x | 1.21x | 0.34x | 0.82x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.0x | 11.0x | 11.6x | 10.4x | 9.2x | 9.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 44.7x | 16.3x | 15.5x | 17.3x | 16.4x | 13.7x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.2x | 11.0x | 14.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.6x | 5.2x | 6.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 7.5x | 7.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 686 | 686 | 686 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,880 | 5,137 | 5,394 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (451) | (451) | (451) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 4,429 | 4,686 | 4,943 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 111.9 | 111.9 | 111.9 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 39.57 | 41.86 | 44.16 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 33.59 | 35.53 | 37.48 | 43.98 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -23.6% | -19.2% | -14.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | RYI | MTRN | STLD | NUE | ZEUS | CMS | |
Enterprise Value | 1,615 | 2,299 | 22,779 | 36,679 | 656 | 6,251 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 34 | 18 | 1,207 | 4,061 | 13 | 893 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (883) | (537) | (4,196) | (7,880) | (281) | (1,344) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (9) | 0 | (9) | (1,046) | 0 | (0) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 757 | 1,781 | 19,780 | 31,814 | 389 | 5,800 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 32.2 | 20.8 | 148.5 | 230.8 | 11.2 | 111.9 | |
Implied Stock Price | 23.51 | 85.59 | 133.24 | 137.87 | 34.81 | 51.81 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 23.51 | 85.59 | 133.24 | 137.87 | 34.81 | 43.98 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 |