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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,2x - 8,0x | 7,6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,7x - 6,3x | 6,0x |
| Fair Value | €0,52 - €0,56 | €0,54 |
| Upside | -15,2% - -7,9% | -11,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | GBX | NYSE:GBX |
| Vossloh AG | VOSS.F | OTCPK:VOSS.F |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | WAB | NYSE:WAB |
| Sichuan Zigong Conveying Machine Group Co., Ltd. | 1288 | SZSE:001288 |
| Square Technology Group Co.,Ltd | 603339 | SHSE:603339 |
| CRRC Corporation Limited | C2L | DB:C2L |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| GBX | VOSS.F | WAB | 1288 | 603339 | C2L | ||
| NYSE:GBX | OTCPK:VOSS.F | NYSE:WAB | SZSE:001288 | SHSE:603339 | DB:C2L | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.5% | 15.0% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 1.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 44.8% | 11.2% | 17.0% | 27.2% | 11.8% | 7.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 36.1% | -13.3% | 13.9% | 76.3% | -20.3% | 14.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.8% | 10.9% | 18.1% | 12.9% | 16.3% | 8.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.9% | 11.7% | 18.4% | 11.8% | 18.9% | 9.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.0% | 11.4% | 20.4% | 14.9% | 17.1% | 9.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.1% | 10.7% | 20.8% | 14.2% | 16.4% | 9.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.86x | 1.36x | 3.65x | 2.81x | 1.35x | 0.60x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 12.8x | 17.5x | 19.8x | 8.2x | 6.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.1x | 18.9x | 22.1x | 23.2x | 10.7x | 8.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 12.8x | 19.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 7.1x | 8.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 7.6x | 8.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 24,607 | 24,607 | 24,607 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 177,685 | 187,037 | 196,389 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 36,897 | 36,897 | 36,897 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 214,582 | 223,934 | 233,286 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 48,660.9 | 48,660.9 | 48,660.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.41 | 4.60 | 4.79 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/EUR | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 0.61 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -11.6% | -7.7% | -3.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | GBX | VOSS.F | WAB | 1288 | 603339 | C2L | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,026 | 1,568 | 38,290 | 4,725 | 2,586 | 205,731 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 287 | 94 | 690 | 1,190 | 956 | 64,727 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 151 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29,855 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,848) | (258) | (4,312) | (1,092) | (0) | (16,167) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (202) | (26) | (46) | (110) | 0 | (41,518) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,415 | 1,429 | 34,622 | 4,712 | 3,541 | 242,628 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 31.4 | 19.3 | 171.1 | 228.9 | 302.7 | 48,660.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 45.07 | 73.99 | 202.32 | 20.59 | 11.70 | 4.99 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.17 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 45.07 | 84.00 | 202.32 | 20.59 | 11.70 | 0.61 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | CNY | CNY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.17 | |