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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,3x - 8,0x | 7,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6,7x - 7,4x | 7,0x |
| Fair Value | €31,97 - €35,42 | €33,69 |
| Upside | 20,1% - 33,0% | 26,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Kirin Holdings Company, Limited | 2503 | TSE:2503 |
| Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. | 2502 | TSE:2502 |
| Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings Inc. | 2579 | TSE:2579 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | KDP | NasdaqGS:KDP |
| The Coca-Cola Company | KO_KZ | KAS:KO_KZ |
| Suntory Beverage & Food Limited | 7SN | DB:7SN |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2503 | 2502 | 2579 | KDP | KO_KZ | 7SN | ||
| TSE:2503 | TSE:2502 | TSE:2579 | NasdaqGS:KDP | KAS:KO_KZ | DB:7SN | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.8% | 5.6% | -4.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 7.9% | 8.3% | 19.4% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 8.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.2% | 3.9% | 16.4% | 1.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.5% | 14.2% | 5.6% | 27.9% | 32.9% | 13.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.7% | 14.4% | 5.7% | 26.6% | 31.4% | 12.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.2% | 14.2% | 6.6% | 26.9% | 32.7% | 13.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.3% | 14.2% | NA | 26.9% | 32.8% | 13.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.10x | 1.41x | 0.53x | 3.97x | 6.75x | 0.87x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.9x | 9.9x | 8.0x | 14.8x | 20.6x | 6.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.5x | 15.9x | 32.3x | 17.9x | 22.1x | 9.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.0x | 9.9x | 20.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 7.0x | 7.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 7.7x | 8.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 224,558 | 224,558 | 224,558 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,634,091 | 1,720,096 | 1,806,101 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (41,892) | (41,892) | (41,892) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,592,199 | 1,678,204 | 1,764,209 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 309.0 | 309.0 | 309.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 5,152.75 | 5,431.08 | 5,709.41 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 168.8 | 168.8 | 168.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 30.53 | 32.18 | 33.83 | 26.62 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 14.7% | 20.9% | 27.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2503 | 2502 | 2579 | KDP | KO_KZ | 7SN | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,622,442 | 4,166,601 | 477,481 | 61,604 | 316,097 | 1,430,226 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 122,515 | 68,916 | 64,300 | 653 | 13,787 | 129,279 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 229,795 | 222,178 | 393 | 1,599 | 20,484 | 14,864 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,034,585) | (1,505,137) | (133,002) | (18,682) | (49,971) | (81,245) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (280,900) | (3,964) | (217) | 0 | (1,552) | (104,790) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,659,267 | 2,948,594 | 408,955 | 45,174 | 298,845 | 1,388,334 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 810.0 | 1,502.9 | 171.9 | 1,358.2 | 4,304.3 | 309.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,048.50 | 1,962.00 | 2,379.00 | 33.26 | 69.43 | 4,492.99 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 168.78 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,048.50 | 1,962.00 | 2,379.00 | 33.26 | 69.43 | 26.62 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 168.78 | |