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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | -2,8x - -3,1x | -2,9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7,4x - 8,1x | 7,7x |
| Fair Value | €1,52 - €1,81 | €1,67 |
| Upside | 29,2% - 53,4% | 41,3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Endesa, S.A. | ELE | BME:ELE |
| Iberdrola, S.A. | IBE | BME:IBE |
| Audax Renovables, S.A. | ADX | BME:ADX |
| Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. | NTGY | BME:NTGY |
| Public Power Corporation S.A. | PU8 | DB:PU8 |
| Holaluz-Clidom, S.A. | 4H2 | DB:4H2 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ELE | IBE | ADX | NTGY | PU8 | 4H2 | ||
| BME:ELE | BME:IBE | BME:ADX | BME:NTGY | DB:PU8 | DB:4H2 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.6% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 48.1% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | 7.7% | 14.8% | 37.8% | 9.6% | 26.2% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 79.3% | -5.0% | 9.1% | -3.5% | 23.0% | 25.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 17.6% | 28.0% | 3.9% | 19.6% | 14.8% | -2.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.7% | 29.1% | 4.2% | 22.1% | 16.3% | -5.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 21.9% | 37.0% | 5.6% | 25.0% | 19.4% | -8.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 23.0% | 34.2% | 5.5% | 25.0% | 18.4% | -8.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.84x | 3.68x | 0.51x | 2.08x | 1.12x | 0.23x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.0x | 10.8x | 9.3x | 8.3x | 6.1x | -2.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.4x | 16.6x | 11.0x | 11.4x | 12.3x | -2.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 8.3x | 10.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -2628.5x | -204.5x | -2.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | -2.8x | -2.9x | -3.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | (23) | (23) | (23) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 66 | 69 | 72 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (30) | (30) | (30) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 35 | 39 | 42 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.40 | 1.53 | 1.67 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.40 | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.18 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 18.3% | 29.8% | 41.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ELE | IBE | ADX | NTGY | PU8 | 4H2 | |
| Enterprise Value | 38,964 | 165,115 | 1,056 | 39,994 | 10,491 | 60 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 92 | 2,124 | 236 | 5,685 | 2,761 | 5 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 291 | 1,781 | 14 | 708 | 0 | 1 | |
| (-) Debt | (10,469) | (60,084) | (585) | (18,022) | (7,621) | (36) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (918) | (13,738) | (13) | (2,175) | (1,007) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 27,960 | 95,198 | 708 | 26,190 | 4,624 | 30 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,058.3 | 6,052.0 | 450.6 | 960.7 | 332.0 | 25.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 26.42 | 15.73 | 1.57 | 27.26 | 13.93 | 1.18 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 26.42 | 15.73 | 1.57 | 27.26 | 13.93 | 1.18 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |