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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8,8x - 9,8x | 9,3x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10,5x - 11,6x | 11,0x |
Fair Value | €0,33 - €0,51 | €0,42 |
Upside | -48,8% - -19,8% | -34,3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited | 601668 | SHSE:601668 |
China Communications Construction Company Limited | 601800 | SHSE:601800 |
Chanhigh Holdings Limited | 2017 | SEHK:2017 |
AECOM | ACM | NYSE:ACM |
Worley Limited | WOR | ASX:WOR |
China Railway Construction Corporation Limited | 4FF | DB:4FF |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
601668 | 601800 | 2017 | ACM | WOR | 4FF | ||
SHSE:601668 | SHSE:601800 | SEHK:2017 | NYSE:ACM | ASX:WOR | DB:4FF | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 2.6% | 5.2% | -13.5% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 6.1% | |
3Y CAGR | -2.4% | 2.1% | -12.6% | 12.7% | 22.5% | 3.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -10.1% | -10.9% | -26.5% | 15.8% | 3.5% | -12.5% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.44x | 0.84x | 0.14x | 1.05x | 0.69x | 0.38x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.5x | 12.9x | 5.6x | 14.6x | 10.3x | 6.3x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.6x | 16.8x | 5.9x | 17.1x | 12.5x | 9.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.9x | 12.5x | 17.1x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 4.6x | 5.3x | 8.5x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.8x | 9.3x | 9.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 41,387 | 41,387 | 41,387 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 365,890 | 385,148 | 404,405 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (291,127) | (291,127) | (291,127) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 74,763 | 94,020 | 113,277 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 24,107.8 | 24,107.8 | 24,107.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 3.10 | 3.90 | 4.70 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/EUR | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.37 | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.64 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -42.3% | -27.4% | -12.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 601668 | 601800 | 2017 | ACM | WOR | 4FF | |
Enterprise Value | 963,040 | 638,975 | 254 | 16,785 | 8,060 | 420,712 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 353,811 | 157,741 | 440 | 1,610 | 550 | 167,208 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 150,508 | 144,891 | 31 | 182 | 299 | 174,431 | |
(-) Debt | (905,082) | (660,886) | (549) | (3,158) | (2,049) | (539,885) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (316,420) | (155,601) | (6) | (181) | (1) | (92,882) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 245,856 | 125,121 | 170 | 15,239 | 6,859 | 129,584 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 41,320.4 | 14,042.8 | 618.5 | 132.0 | 516.1 | 24,107.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 5.95 | 8.91 | 0.27 | 115.43 | 13.29 | 5.38 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.40 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.95 | 8.91 | 0.30 | 115.43 | 13.29 | 0.64 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | HKD | USD | AUD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 8.40 |