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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,6x - 0,7x | 0,7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,5x - 0,6x | 0,5x |
| Fair Value | COP 5.787 - COP 6.298 | COP 6.043 |
| Upside | -20,7% - -13,7% | -17,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Master Drilling Group Limited | MDI | JSE:MDI |
| Sociedad Punta del Cobre S.A. | PUCOBRE | SNSE:PUCOBRE |
| Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde S.A.A. | CVERDEC1 | BVL:CVERDEC1 |
| Capital Limited | CAPD | LSE:CAPD |
| Nexa Resources Perú S.A.A. | NEXAPEC1 | BVL:NEXAPEC1 |
| Mineros S.A. | MINEROS | BVC:MINEROS |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| MDI | PUCOBRE | CVERDEC1 | CAPD | NEXAPEC1 | MINEROS | |||
| JSE:MDI | SNSE:PUCOBRE | BVL:CVERDEC1 | LSE:CAPD | BVL:NEXAPEC1 | BVC:MINEROS | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 24.8% | 3.4% | 5.6% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 16.4% | -0.9% | 0.3% | 15.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.6% | 34.6% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 21.3% | 26.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.0% | 26.0% | 36.1% | 18.5% | 20.0% | 22.4% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.3% | 14.5% | 32.3% | 19.1% | 15.0% | 24.8% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 16.0% | 24.2% | 35.2% | 12.4% | 26.7% | 26.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.0% | 29.8% | 37.5% | 12.4% | 29.0% | 29.7% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.65x | 2.14x | 2.96x | 0.91x | 0.35x | 0.77x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.0x | 7.2x | 7.9x | 7.3x | 1.2x | 2.6x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.51x | 1.69x | 3.13x | 0.65x | 0.50x | 0.89x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.35x | 0.91x | 2.96x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.27x | 0.48x | 0.75x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.62x | 0.65x | 0.68x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 585 | 585 | 585 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 361 | 380 | 399 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 68 | 68 | 68 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 430 | 449 | 468 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 299.7 | 299.7 | 299.7 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.56 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/COP | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5,846.12 | 6,104.88 | 6,363.64 | 7,300.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -19.9% | -16.4% | -12.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | MDI | PUCOBRE | CVERDEC1 | CAPD | NEXAPEC1 | MINEROS | |
| Enterprise Value | 169 | 890 | 13,099 | 309 | 326 | 468 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 35 | 37 | 777 | 71 | 171 | 81 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 11 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 15 | |
| (-) Debt | (56) | (136) | (48) | (149) | (39) | (28) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (24) | (85) | 0 | (12) | 3 | (0) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 135 | 706 | 13,827 | 225 | 462 | 537 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 150.5 | 124.7 | 350.1 | 196.7 | 1,271.6 | 299.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.89 | 5.66 | 39.50 | 1.14 | 0.36 | 1.79 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 0.28 | 0.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 15.87 | 5,300.00 | 39.50 | 0.84 | 1.30 | 7,300.00 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | CLP | USD | GBP | PEN | COP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 0.28 | 0.00 | |