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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | -2,4x - -2,6x | -2,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2,1x - 2,3x | 2,2x |
| Fair Value | COP 665,99 - COP 688,85 | COP 677,42 |
| Upside | 35,9% - 40,6% | 38,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Construcciones El Condor S.A. | ELCONDOR | BVC:ELCONDOR |
| Construcciones Civiles S.A. | CONCIVILES | BVC:CONCIVILES |
| Ingevec S.A. | INGEVEC | SNSE:INGEVEC |
| Enka Insaat ve Sanayi A.S. | ENKAI | IBSE:ENKAI |
| Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.B. | GMXD.F | OTCPK:GMXD.F |
| Constructora Conconcreto S.A. | CONCONCRET | BVC:CONCONCRET |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ELCONDOR | CONCIVILES | INGEVEC | ENKAI | GMXD.F | CONCONCRET | ||
| BVC:ELCONDOR | BVC:CONCIVILES | SNSE:INGEVEC | IBSE:ENKAI | OTCPK:GMXD.F | BVC:CONCONCRET | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -9.7% | 23.3% | 11.1% | 58.1% | 3.8% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -17.4% | 3.0% | 14.9% | 54.3% | 11.2% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 213.7% | 2.7% | 106.0% | -95.8% | 11.9% | -172.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 10.2% | 14.3% | 5.3% | 22.9% | 29.2% | 2.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -3.7% | 14.5% | 4.6% | 20.1% | 28.3% | 7.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.1% | 17.7% | 8.1% | 22.9% | 32.6% | -7.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.1% | 17.7% | 9.3% | 23.6% | 32.6% | -7.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.06x | 0.33x | 0.38x | 1.74x | 0.82x | 0.05x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 33.9x | 1.8x | 4.1x | 7.4x | 2.5x | -0.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -23.8x | 3.1x | 4.3x | 8.8x | 3.3x | -0.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.8x | 4.1x | 33.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -13.0x | -1.4x | 3.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | -2.4x | -2.5x | -2.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | (66,617) | (66,617) | (66,617) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 157,595 | 165,889 | 174,184 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 509,005 | 509,005 | 509,005 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 666,599 | 674,894 | 683,188 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,134.3 | 1,134.3 | 1,134.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 587.70 | 595.01 | 602.32 | ||||
| FX Rate: COP/COP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 587.70 | 595.01 | 602.32 | 490.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 19.9% | 21.4% | 22.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ELCONDOR | CONCIVILES | INGEVEC | ENKAI | GMXD.F | CONCONCRET | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,275,658 | 18,843 | 96,432 | 4,696 | 4,136 | 46,780 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 28,199 | 551 | 19,500 | 3,274 | 1,736 | 166,524 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 29,571 | 1,292 | 68,406 | 2,279 | 320 | 616,859 | |
| (-) Debt | (988,809) | (4,270) | (77,417) | (135) | (1,523) | (272,979) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (0) | (88) | (2,711) | (1,400) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 344,619 | 16,416 | 106,920 | 10,027 | 1,957 | 555,785 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 574.4 | 96.0 | 1,080.0 | 5,862.7 | 182.5 | 1,134.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 600.00 | 171.00 | 99.00 | 1.71 | 10.73 | 490.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 19.50 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 600.00 | 171.00 | 99.00 | 66.20 | 0.55 | 490.00 | |
| Trading Currency | COP | COP | CLP | TRY | USD | COP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 19.50 | 1.00 | |