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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | -1,6x - -1,8x | -1,7x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 1,8x - 2,0x | 1,9x |
Fair Value | COP 625,24 - COP 643,33 | COP 634,28 |
Upside | 28,6% - 32,4% | 30,5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Construcciones Civiles S.A. | CONCIVILES | BVC:CONCIVILES |
Construcciones El Condor S.A. | ELCONDOR | BVC:ELCONDOR |
Besalco S.A. | BESALCO | SNSE:BESALCO |
China Shuifa Singyes Energy Holdings Limited | 750 | SEHK:750 |
Grupo Mexicano de Desarrollo, S.A.B. | GMXD.F | OTCPK:GMXD.F |
Constructora Conconcreto S.A. | CONCONCRET | BVC:CONCONCRET |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
CONCIVILES | ELCONDOR | BESALCO | 750 | GMXD.F | CONCONCRET | ||
BVC:CONCIVILES | BVC:ELCONDOR | SNSE:BESALCO | SEHK:750 | OTCPK:GMXD.F | BVC:CONCONCRET | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 23.3% | -9.7% | 18.0% | NM- | 3.9% | NM- | |
3Y CAGR | 3.0% | -17.4% | 26.5% | 0.5% | 11.4% | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | -1.8% | -18.8% | 8.1% | 1.0% | 23.6% | -206.9% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 14.8% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 12.1% | 29.2% | 1.5% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 14.5% | -3.7% | 15.7% | 18.0% | 28.3% | 7.5% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 17.7% | 3.1% | 13.8% | 17.7% | 32.9% | -7.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 20.2% | 1.5% | 13.8% | 17.7% | 32.8% | -7.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.22x | 1.00x | 0.76x | 2.71x | 0.73x | 0.05x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.1x | 67.1x | 5.5x | 15.3x | 2.2x | -0.6x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 1.8x | -12.3x | 8.4x | 25.0x | 2.9x | -0.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.1x | 5.5x | 67.1x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -13.0x | -6.2x | 3.5x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | -1.6x | -1.7x | -1.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | (60,499) | (60,499) | (60,499) | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 98,655 | 103,848 | 109,040 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 514,213 | 514,213 | 514,213 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 612,869 | 618,061 | 623,253 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,134.3 | 1,134.3 | 1,134.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 540.33 | 544.90 | 549.48 | ||||
FX Rate: COP/COP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 540.33 | 544.90 | 549.48 | 486.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 11.2% | 12.1% | 13.1% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | CONCIVILES | ELCONDOR | BESALCO | 750 | GMXD.F | CONCONCRET | |
Enterprise Value | 10,912 | 1,173,642 | 789,857 | 12,459 | 3,775 | 37,035 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 7,908 | 30,723 | 89,909 | 828 | 1,795 | 191,661 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,267 | 18,725 | 49,485 | 28 | 324 | 581,067 | |
(-) Debt | (3,671) | (953,139) | (425,285) | (11,620) | (1,505) | (257,216) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (13,994) | (1,072) | (2,714) | (1,299) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 16,416 | 269,952 | 489,971 | 623 | 1,675 | 551,248 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 96.0 | 574.4 | 576.2 | 2,521.1 | 182.5 | 1,134.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 171.00 | 470.00 | 850.39 | 0.25 | 9.18 | 486.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 18.73 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 171.00 | 470.00 | 850.39 | 0.27 | 0.49 | 486.00 | |
Trading Currency | COP | COP | CLP | HKD | USD | COP | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 18.73 | 1.00 |