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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6,4x - 7,1x | 6,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,1x - 5,7x | 5,4x |
| Fair Value | R$21,74 - R$24,93 | R$23,34 |
| Upside | 27,1% - 45,8% | 36,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | PETR3 | BOVESPA:PETR3 |
| Cosan S.A. | CSAN3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 |
| Petroreconcavo S.A. | RECV3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 |
| Prio S.A. | PRIO3 | BOVESPA:PRIO3 |
| Ultrapar Participações S.A. | UGPA3 | BOVESPA:UGPA3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 857 | PETR3 | CSAN3 | RECV3 | PRIO3 | UGPA3 | ||
| SEHK:857 | BOVESPA:PETR3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 | BOVESPA:PRIO3 | BOVESPA:UGPA3 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.0% | 10.7% | 37.2% | 61.6% | 64.0% | 11.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 7.3% | -3.4% | 33.0% | 44.1% | 44.1% | 33.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -2.8% | -16.1% | 26.5% | 32.1% | -11.0% | -7.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.8% | 48.7% | 23.9% | 52.0% | 70.8% | 3.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 16.3% | 48.2% | 26.4% | 45.8% | 75.9% | 4.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 16.3% | 40.1% | 30.1% | 50.8% | 61.1% | 3.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.7% | 39.5% | 30.5% | 51.1% | 54.2% | 3.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.51x | 1.54x | 1.75x | 1.51x | 3.38x | 0.20x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.1x | 3.9x | 5.7x | 2.9x | 6.2x | 5.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.9x | 5.0x | 7.5x | 5.1x | 9.2x | 7.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 3.9x | 6.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.6x | 8.4x | 17.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 6.7x | 7.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 5,012 | 5,012 | 5,012 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 32,102 | 33,791 | 35,481 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (9,243) | (9,243) | (9,243) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 22,858 | 24,548 | 26,237 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,075.3 | 1,075.3 | 1,075.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 21.26 | 22.83 | 24.40 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 21.26 | 22.83 | 24.40 | 17.10 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 24.3% | 33.5% | 42.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 857 | PETR3 | CSAN3 | RECV3 | PRIO3 | UGPA3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,705,774 | 776,217 | 76,752 | 5,077 | 52,726 | 27,630 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 316,530 | 44,038 | 17,647 | 1,018 | 4,162 | 2,737 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 300,860 | 8,984 | 11,438 | 16 | 0 | 3,756 | |
| (-) Debt | (364,748) | (370,314) | (67,073) | (1,873) | (22,065) | (15,042) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (199,413) | (1,762) | (26,879) | 0 | 0 | (695) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,759,003 | 457,163 | 11,885 | 4,239 | 34,823 | 18,387 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 273,222.9 | 12,888.7 | 1,862.8 | 292.9 | 815.1 | 1,075.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6.44 | 35.47 | 6.38 | 14.47 | 42.72 | 17.10 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.05 | 35.47 | 6.38 | 14.47 | 42.72 | 17.10 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |