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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 5,6x - 6,2x | 5,9x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 3,3x - 3,7x | 3,5x |
Fair Value | R$5,06 - R$8,67 | R$6,86 |
Upside | 25,5% - 115,1% | 70,3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Wilson Sons S.A. | PORT3 | BOVESPA:PORT3 |
Santos Brasil Participações S.A. | STBP3 | BOVESPA:STBP3 |
EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A. | ECOR3 | BOVESPA:ECOR3 |
Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade S.A. | MOTV3 | BOVESPA:MOTV3 |
Qube Holdings Limited | QUB | ASX:QUB |
Triunfo Participações e Investimentos S.A. | TPIS3 | BOVESPA:TPIS3 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
PORT3 | STBP3 | ECOR3 | MOTV3 | QUB | TPIS3 | ||
BOVESPA:PORT3 | BOVESPA:STBP3 | BOVESPA:ECOR3 | BOVESPA:MOTV3 | ASX:QUB | BOVESPA:TPIS3 | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 19.6% | 70.9% | 23.0% | 9.1% | 16.0% | NM- | |
3Y CAGR | 15.3% | 44.1% | 31.4% | 13.1% | 26.6% | 189.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 33.8% | 45.7% | 14.1% | -0.8% | 23.0% | 106.8% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 26.1% | 27.1% | 33.1% | 33.2% | 8.6% | 13.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 26.4% | 36.5% | 33.4% | 32.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 29.5% | 41.4% | 36.1% | 24.5% | 9.3% | 20.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 30.0% | 43.7% | 35.9% | 26.3% | 8.9% | 19.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.06x | 5.01x | 2.40x | 2.60x | 2.59x | 1.08x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | 10.7x | 5.4x | 7.9x | 16.9x | 2.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 10.2x | 11.5x | 6.7x | 9.9x | 29.1x | 5.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.7x | 10.2x | 29.1x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -74.0x | 7.8x | 27.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 5.6x | 5.9x | 6.2x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 267 | 267 | 267 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,489 | 1,568 | 1,646 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,270) | (1,270) | (1,270) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 219 | 298 | 376 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 43.4 | 43.4 | 43.4 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 5.06 | 6.86 | 8.67 | ||||
FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.06 | 6.86 | 8.67 | 4.03 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 25.5% | 70.3% | 115.1% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | PORT3 | STBP3 | ECOR3 | MOTV3 | QUB | TPIS3 | |
Enterprise Value | 9,315 | 15,762 | 24,355 | 56,190 | 9,692 | 1,445 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 588 | 382 | 3,798 | 6,271 | 157 | 26 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 584 | 16 | 0 | 881 | 663 | 59 | |
(-) Debt | (2,718) | (4,214) | (23,267) | (37,909) | (2,856) | (1,370) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (2) | 0 | (253) | (387) | 4 | 15 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 7,766 | 11,947 | 4,633 | 25,046 | 7,660 | 175 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 441.0 | 860.1 | 695.6 | 2,010.1 | 1,769.0 | 43.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 17.61 | 13.89 | 6.66 | 12.46 | 4.33 | 4.03 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 17.61 | 13.89 | 6.66 | 12.46 | 4.33 | 4.03 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | AUD | BRL | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |