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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6,5x - 7,1x | 6,8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,1x - 5,6x | 5,4x |
| Fair Value | R$8,70 - R$9,94 | R$9,32 |
| Upside | -24,7% - -14,1% | -19,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| CPFL Energia S.A. | CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 |
| Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG | CMIG4 | BOVESPA:CMIG4 |
| Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás | ELET5 | BOVESPA:ELET5 |
| Neoenergia S.A. | NEOE3 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 |
| Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. | GEPA4 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 |
| Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL | CPLE3 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CPFE3 | CMIG4 | ELET5 | NEOE3 | GEPA4 | CPLE3 | ||
| BOVESPA:CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CMIG4 | BOVESPA:ELET5 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 15.8% | 19.0% | 9.4% | 17.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 13.9% | 12.2% | -12.6% | 7.8% | 22.7% | -5.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.9% | 21.3% | 19.9% | 19.7% | 13.4% | 19.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 27.2% | 20.3% | 47.4% | 24.8% | 63.9% | 23.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 32.9% | 21.1% | 40.0% | 25.2% | 58.3% | 21.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 30.4% | 23.7% | 41.3% | 26.4% | 68.3% | 22.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 30.3% | 22.9% | 39.7% | 26.6% | 69.3% | 23.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.69x | 1.03x | 2.10x | 1.46x | 2.74x | 1.93x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.6x | 4.5x | 5.3x | 5.5x | 4.0x | 8.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.8x | 5.2x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 5.7x | 10.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 5.3x | 5.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.1x | 5.8x | 8.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.5x | 6.8x | 7.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 5,468 | 5,468 | 5,468 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 35,333 | 37,192 | 39,052 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8,858) | (8,858) | (8,858) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 26,475 | 28,334 | 30,194 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,969.3 | 2,969.3 | 2,969.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.92 | 9.54 | 10.17 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.92 | 9.54 | 10.17 | 11.56 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -22.9% | -17.5% | -12.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CPFE3 | CMIG4 | ELET5 | NEOE3 | GEPA4 | CPLE3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 73,178 | 40,813 | 86,050 | 72,581 | 3,373 | 43,183 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,048 | 4,700 | 26,978 | 6,013 | 445 | 6,057 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 792 | 3,308 | 32,526 | 2,376 | 0 | 4,184 | |
| (-) Debt | (31,084) | (15,660) | (74,860) | (52,023) | (634) | (19,138) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,121) | (6) | (84) | (135) | 0 | 39 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 45,814 | 33,156 | 70,610 | 28,812 | 3,183 | 34,325 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,152.3 | 3,163.8 | 941.5 | 1,213.2 | 94.4 | 2,969.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 39.76 | 10.48 | 75.00 | 23.75 | 33.71 | 11.56 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 39.76 | 10.48 | 75.00 | 23.75 | 33.71 | 11.56 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |