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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8,9x - 9,8x | 9,3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 6,9x - 7,6x | 7,3x |
| Fair Value | R$8,99 - R$10,25 | R$9,62 |
| Upside | -22,2% - -11,3% | -16,8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| CPFL Energia S.A. | CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 |
| Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG | CMIG4 | BOVESPA:CMIG4 |
| Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás | ELET5 | BOVESPA:ELET5 |
| Neoenergia S.A. | NEOE3 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 |
| Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. | GEPA4 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 |
| Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL | CPLE3 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CPFE3 | CMIG4 | ELET5 | NEOE3 | GEPA4 | CPLE3 | ||
| BOVESPA:CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CMIG4 | BOVESPA:ELET5 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 18.6% | 21.5% | 7.6% | 17.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 14.9% | 12.9% | -18.7% | 5.6% | 50.3% | -9.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.2% | 24.1% | 20.7% | 23.4% | 21.3% | 26.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 21.5% | 17.0% | 40.2% | 19.7% | 44.6% | 17.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 27.2% | 17.8% | 30.5% | 19.3% | 39.4% | 15.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 25.0% | 20.3% | 31.6% | 20.6% | 46.5% | 16.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 25.0% | 19.6% | 30.0% | 20.8% | 47.9% | 17.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.76x | 1.03x | 2.04x | 1.45x | 2.76x | 1.93x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 4.5x | 5.2x | 5.5x | 4.0x | 8.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.0x | 5.3x | 6.9x | 7.0x | 5.8x | 10.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.3x | 6.9x | 7.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 3.7x | 7.7x | 12.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.9x | 9.3x | 9.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 4,111 | 4,111 | 4,111 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 36,488 | 38,408 | 40,328 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8,858) | (8,858) | (8,858) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 27,629 | 29,550 | 31,470 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,969.3 | 2,969.3 | 2,969.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.31 | 9.95 | 10.60 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.31 | 9.95 | 10.60 | 11.56 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -19.5% | -13.9% | -8.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CPFE3 | CMIG4 | ELET5 | NEOE3 | GEPA4 | CPLE3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 74,158 | 40,813 | 67,977 | 72,581 | 3,373 | 43,183 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,547 | 4,700 | 30,281 | 6,013 | 445 | 6,057 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 726 | 3,308 | 32,526 | 2,376 | 0 | 4,184 | |
| (-) Debt | (31,555) | (15,660) | (74,860) | (52,023) | (634) | (19,138) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,063) | (6) | (84) | (135) | 0 | 39 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 45,814 | 33,156 | 55,840 | 28,812 | 3,183 | 34,325 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,152.3 | 3,163.8 | 744.5 | 1,213.2 | 94.4 | 2,969.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 39.76 | 10.48 | 75.00 | 23.75 | 33.71 | 11.56 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 39.76 | 10.48 | 75.00 | 23.75 | 33.71 | 11.56 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |