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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8,5x - 9,4x | 9,0x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 6,9x - 7,6x | 7,2x |
| Fair Value | R$8,81 - R$10,05 | R$9,43 |
| Upside | -24,7% - -14,1% | -19,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás | ELET5 | BOVESPA:ELET5 |
| CPFL Energia S.A. | CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 |
| Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIG | CMIG4 | BOVESPA:CMIG4 |
| Neoenergia S.A. | NEOE3 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 |
| Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. | GEPA4 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 |
| Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL | CPLE3 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ELET5 | CPFE3 | CMIG4 | NEOE3 | GEPA4 | CPLE3 | ||
| BOVESPA:ELET5 | BOVESPA:CPFE3 | BOVESPA:CMIG4 | BOVESPA:NEOE3 | BOVESPA:GEPA4 | BOVESPA:CPLE3 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.6% | 18.6% | 21.5% | 17.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -18.7% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 5.6% | 50.3% | -9.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 23.0% | -2.7% | 24.1% | 23.4% | 21.3% | 26.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 40.3% | 22.1% | 17.0% | 19.7% | 44.6% | 17.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 30.5% | 27.2% | 17.8% | 19.3% | 39.4% | 15.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 31.6% | 25.0% | 20.3% | 20.6% | 46.5% | 16.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 30.1% | 24.9% | 19.6% | 20.8% | 47.9% | 17.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.62x | 1.73x | 1.05x | 1.51x | 2.91x | 1.97x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.6x | 5.7x | 4.6x | 5.7x | 4.2x | 8.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.7x | 6.9x | 5.4x | 7.3x | 6.1x | 11.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.4x | 6.9x | 8.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 3.7x | 7.7x | 12.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.5x | 9.0x | 9.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 4,111 | 4,111 | 4,111 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 35,089 | 36,936 | 38,783 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8,858) | (8,858) | (8,858) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 26,231 | 28,078 | 29,925 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,969.3 | 2,969.3 | 2,969.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.83 | 9.46 | 10.08 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.83 | 9.46 | 10.08 | 11.70 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -24.5% | -19.2% | -13.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ELET5 | CPFE3 | CMIG4 | NEOE3 | GEPA4 | CPLE3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 93,111 | 73,973 | 42,015 | 74,025 | 3,589 | 43,599 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 26,978 | 4,048 | 4,700 | 6,013 | 445 | 6,057 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 32,526 | 792 | 3,308 | 2,376 | 0 | 4,184 | |
| (-) Debt | (74,860) | (31,084) | (15,660) | (52,023) | (634) | (19,138) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (84) | (1,121) | (6) | (135) | 0 | 39 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 77,671 | 46,609 | 34,358 | 30,256 | 3,400 | 34,741 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 941.5 | 1,152.3 | 3,163.8 | 1,213.2 | 94.4 | 2,969.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 82.50 | 40.45 | 10.86 | 24.94 | 36.00 | 11.70 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 82.50 | 40.45 | 10.86 | 24.94 | 36.00 | 11.70 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |