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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3,6x - 4,0x | 3,8x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3,9x - 4,4x | 4,1x |
Fair Value | R$4,99 - R$5,40 | R$5,19 |
Upside | -3,5% - 4,4% | 0,4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Vale S.A. | VALE3 | BOVESPA:VALE3 |
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A. | GOAU3 | BOVESPA:GOAU3 |
Bradespar S.A. | BRAP3 | BOVESPA:BRAP3 |
Gerdau S.A. | GGBR3 | BOVESPA:GGBR3 |
Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia S.A. - FERBASA | FESA3 | BOVESPA:FESA3 |
CSN Mineração S.A. | CMIN3 | BOVESPA:CMIN3 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
VALE3 | GOAU3 | BRAP3 | GGBR3 | FESA3 | CMIN3 | ||
BOVESPA:VALE3 | BOVESPA:GOAU3 | BOVESPA:BRAP3 | BOVESPA:GGBR3 | BOVESPA:FESA3 | BOVESPA:CMIN3 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 0.4% | 12.4% | NM- | 12.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | |
3Y CAGR | -24.1% | -26.5% | -48.7% | -26.1% | -31.7% | -16.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -12.3% | -15.4% | NM | -15.3% | -15.3% | -5.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 48.3% | 19.8% | 0.0% | 19.8% | 26.4% | 44.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 41.9% | 17.8% | NA | 18.1% | 16.9% | 36.7% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 35.6% | 13.2% | NA | 13.4% | 13.0% | 36.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 35.0% | 12.4% | NA | 12.6% | 11.6% | 37.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.44x | 0.76x | -357.89x | 0.57x | 0.92x | 1.31x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.1x | 6.1x | NA | 4.5x | 8.0x | 3.5x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 5.2x | 8.9x | -78.7x | 6.7x | 30.6x | 4.3x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.1x | 5.3x | 8.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.3x | 3.6x | 6.3x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.6x | 3.8x | 4.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 6,289 | 6,289 | 6,289 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 22,527 | 23,713 | 24,899 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 6,165 | 6,165 | 6,165 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 28,692 | 29,878 | 31,063 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 5,432.0 | 5,432.0 | 5,432.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 5.28 | 5.50 | 5.72 | ||||
FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.28 | 5.50 | 5.72 | 5.17 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 2.2% | 6.4% | 10.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | VALE3 | GOAU3 | BRAP3 | GGBR3 | FESA3 | CMIN3 | |
Enterprise Value | 301,374 | 51,515 | (2,775) | 35,967 | 2,527 | 21,919 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 22,959 | 6,887 | 711 | 6,870 | 839 | 14,296 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 26,560 | 3,864 | 7,985 | 3,864 | 388 | 1,824 | |
(-) Debt | (106,487) | (15,994) | (5) | (15,994) | (403) | (9,954) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (6,635) | (36,812) | 0 | (202) | (2) | (1) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 237,771 | 9,460 | 5,916 | 30,504 | 3,349 | 28,084 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 4,268.8 | 993.7 | 393.1 | 2,028.2 | 277.7 | 5,432.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 55.70 | 9.52 | 15.05 | 15.04 | 12.06 | 5.17 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 55.70 | 9.52 | 15.05 | 15.04 | 12.06 | 5.17 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |