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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 4,5x - 4,9x | 4,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5,9x - 6,5x | 6,2x |
| Fair Value | R$5,17 - R$5,59 | R$5,38 |
| Upside | -8,7% - -1,2% | -4,9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Vale S.A. | VALE3 | BOVESPA:VALE3 |
| Gerdau S.A. | GGBR3 | BOVESPA:GGBR3 |
| Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia S.A. - FERBASA | FESA3 | BOVESPA:FESA3 |
| Metalurgica Gerdau S.A. | GOAU3 | BOVESPA:GOAU3 |
| Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio | CBAV3 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 |
| CSN Mineração S.A. | CMIN3 | BOVESPA:CMIN3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| VALE3 | GGBR3 | FESA3 | GOAU3 | CBAV3 | CMIN3 | ||
| BOVESPA:VALE3 | BOVESPA:GGBR3 | BOVESPA:FESA3 | BOVESPA:GOAU3 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 | BOVESPA:CMIN3 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 0.0% | 14.5% | 36.9% | 14.5% | -0.6% | -1.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -27.3% | -32.0% | -49.2% | -31.8% | -30.0% | -19.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -17.3% | -22.9% | -46.8% | -22.7% | 191.2% | -7.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 41.3% | 16.2% | 19.0% | 16.3% | 4.7% | 37.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 35.1% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 14.3% | -13.5% | 31.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 28.2% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 29.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 27.4% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 30.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.39x | 0.54x | 0.94x | 0.74x | 0.71x | 1.45x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 4.3x | 7.8x | 6.0x | 4.6x | 3.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.1x | 6.4x | 31.1x | 8.7x | 8.1x | 4.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.1x | 8.1x | 31.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 2.6x | 4.4x | 7.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 4.5x | 4.7x | 4.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 5,135 | 5,135 | 5,135 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 22,996 | 24,206 | 25,416 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 6,165 | 6,165 | 6,165 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 29,160 | 30,371 | 31,581 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,432.0 | 5,432.0 | 5,432.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 5.37 | 5.59 | 5.81 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.37 | 5.59 | 5.81 | 5.66 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -5.2% | -1.2% | 2.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | VALE3 | GGBR3 | FESA3 | GOAU3 | CBAV3 | CMIN3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 300,307 | 36,291 | 2,424 | 50,810 | 6,255 | 24,581 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 22,959 | 6,870 | 839 | 6,887 | 858 | 14,296 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 26,560 | 3,864 | 388 | 3,864 | 270 | 1,824 | |
| (-) Debt | (106,487) | (15,994) | (403) | (15,994) | (4,043) | (9,954) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6,635) | (202) | (2) | (36,812) | (227) | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 236,704 | 30,829 | 3,246 | 8,755 | 3,112 | 30,745 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,268.8 | 2,028.2 | 277.7 | 993.7 | 651.1 | 5,432.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 55.45 | 15.20 | 11.69 | 8.81 | 4.78 | 5.66 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 55.45 | 15.20 | 11.69 | 8.81 | 4.78 | 5.66 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |