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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8,9x - 9,9x | 9,4x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4,7x - 5,2x | 4,9x |
Fair Value | R$23,54 - R$26,62 | R$25,08 |
Upside | 39,4% - 57,6% | 48,5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Embpar Participacoes S.A. | EPAR3 | BOVESPA:EPAR3 |
Vibra Energia S.A. | VBBR3 | BOVESPA:VBBR3 |
Lojas Renner S.A. | LREN3 | BOVESPA:LREN3 |
Track & Field Co S.A. | TFCO4 | BOVESPA:TFCO4 |
Westwing Comércio Varejista S.A. | WEST3 | BOVESPA:WEST3 |
C&A Modas S.A. | CEAB3 | BOVESPA:CEAB3 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
EPAR3 | VBBR3 | LREN3 | TFCO4 | WEST3 | CEAB3 | ||
BOVESPA:EPAR3 | BOVESPA:VBBR3 | BOVESPA:LREN3 | BOVESPA:TFCO4 | BOVESPA:WEST3 | BOVESPA:CEAB3 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | 38.9% | -1.4% | 38.3% | NM- | -4.4% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | 46.1% | 17.3% | 24.5% | NM- | 55.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -148.2% | 13.9% | 30.7% | 20.9% | 55.6% | 42.4% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | -1.1% | 4.0% | 11.0% | 21.4% | -22.3% | 7.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 7.4% | 4.4% | 10.3% | 23.2% | -31.2% | 8.3% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | -47.2% | 5.5% | 12.8% | 21.6% | -19.2% | 12.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -92.6% | 5.4% | 13.4% | 22.2% | -17.3% | 12.8% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 8.60x | 0.24x | 1.36x | 2.57x | -0.33x | 0.87x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | -9.3x | 4.5x | 10.1x | 11.6x | 1.9x | 6.8x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -7.7x | 4.7x | 12.5x | 12.7x | 1.7x | 7.9x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -9.3x | 4.5x | 11.6x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.9x | 9.2x | 19.1x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.9x | 9.4x | 9.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 997 | 997 | 997 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 8,924 | 9,394 | 9,863 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,707) | (1,707) | (1,707) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 7,217 | 7,687 | 8,156 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 300.5 | 300.5 | 300.5 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 24.02 | 25.58 | 27.15 | ||||
FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 24.02 | 25.58 | 27.15 | 16.89 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 42.2% | 51.5% | 60.7% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | EPAR3 | VBBR3 | LREN3 | TFCO4 | WEST3 | CEAB3 | |
Enterprise Value | 61 | 43,251 | 20,045 | 2,269 | (53) | 6,782 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 14 | 5,507 | 1,631 | 50 | 110 | 1,521 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 2,190 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | 0 | (26,617) | (2,991) | (147) | (10) | (3,228) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (447) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 75 | 23,884 | 18,741 | 2,172 | 47 | 5,075 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 14.9 | 1,114.5 | 1,009.7 | 151.2 | 11.1 | 300.5 | |
Implied Stock Price | 5.05 | 21.43 | 18.56 | 14.36 | 4.24 | 16.89 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.05 | 21.43 | 18.56 | 14.36 | 4.24 | 16.89 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |