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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9,2x - 10,2x | 9,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5,2x - 5,8x | 5,5x |
| Fair Value | R$2,22 - R$3 | R$2,61 |
| Upside | -41,5% - -21,1% | -31,3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Hulamin Limited | HLM | JSE:HLM |
| Panatlântica S.A. | PATI3 | BOVESPA:PATI3 |
| Paranapanema S.A. | PMAM3 | BOVESPA:PMAM3 |
| Norsk Hydro ASA | NHYK.F | OTCPK:NHYK.F |
| Electro Aço Altona S.A. | EALT3 | BOVESPA:EALT3 |
| Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio | CBAV3 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| HLM | PATI3 | PMAM3 | NHYK.F | EALT3 | CBAV3 | ||
| JSE:HLM | BOVESPA:PATI3 | BOVESPA:PMAM3 | OTCPK:NHYK.F | BOVESPA:EALT3 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 80.2% | 25.2% | NM- | 17.3% | 30.2% | -0.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -5.4% | -32.4% | NM- | 7.5% | 31.6% | -30.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -71.2% | 60.3% | 26.0% | 43.4% | 58.2% | 223.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 2.8% | 8.5% | -47.1% | 21.1% | 12.8% | 4.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 3.7% | 3.0% | -73.3% | 20.0% | 10.6% | -13.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.0% | 6.1% | -74.0% | 20.8% | 18.0% | 5.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.0% | 5.8% | -56.6% | 22.6% | 17.9% | 5.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.17x | 0.48x | 10.05x | 0.61x | 0.61x | 0.66x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.8x | 7.3x | -24.7x | 2.2x | 2.8x | 5.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 17.2x | 8.2x | -17.8x | 2.7x | 3.4x | 12.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -17.8x | 3.4x | 17.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -28.3x | -6.9x | 11.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.2x | 9.7x | 10.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 471 | 471 | 471 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,327 | 4,555 | 4,783 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,334) | (3,334) | (3,334) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 993 | 1,221 | 1,449 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 651.1 | 651.1 | 651.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.53 | 1.87 | 2.22 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.53 | 1.87 | 2.22 | 3.80 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -59.9% | -50.7% | -41.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HLM | PATI3 | PMAM3 | NHYK.F | EALT3 | CBAV3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,447 | 1,031 | 5,429 | 132,897 | 367 | 5,808 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 207 | 394 | 1 | 21,860 | 12 | 673 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 7 | 7 | 0 | 22,955 | 0 | 141 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,815) | (402) | (5,309) | (37,548) | (98) | (3,929) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (7,339) | 0 | (219) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 846 | 1,029 | 122 | 132,825 | 281 | 2,474 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 313.2 | 23.9 | 81.4 | 1,978.5 | 22.3 | 651.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.70 | 43.00 | 1.50 | 67.13 | 12.62 | 3.80 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.70 | 43.00 | 1.50 | 6.81 | 12.62 | 3.80 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | BRL | BRL | USD | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |