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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 1,3x - 1,4x | 1,3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 0,7x - 0,8x | 0,8x |
| Fair Value | Mex$ 115,82 - Mex$ 118,97 | Mex$ 117,39 |
| Upside | -3,8% - -1,2% | -2,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Exxaro Resources Limited | EXX | JSE:EXX |
| Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited | YZCA | BASE:YZCA |
| Whitehaven Coal Limited | WHC | ASX:WHC |
| New Hope Corporation Limited | OD8 | DB:OD8 |
| Peabody Energy Corporation | BTU | SNSE:BTU |
| Thungela Resources Limited | TGA N | BMV:TGAN |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| EXX | YZCA | WHC | OD8 | BTU | TGA N | ||
| JSE:EXX | BASE:YZCA | ASX:WHC | DB:OD8 | SNSE:BTU | BMV:TGAN | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 18.2% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 12.5% | 190.1% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | 0.0% | -2.3% | NM- | 49.3% | 0.4% | -25.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -28.4% | -28.1% | -41.7% | -34.1% | -66.4% | -46.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 22.8% | 19.5% | 29.7% | 38.7% | 1.3% | 27.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 26.8% | 25.4% | 61.5% | 59.4% | 22.2% | 21.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 18.2% | 19.7% | 25.3% | 39.2% | 8.7% | 10.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 18.2% | 19.7% | 17.2% | 34.0% | 8.7% | 10.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.38x | 1.44x | 0.90x | 1.16x | 0.24x | 0.02x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.5x | 4.8x | 2.2x | 2.5x | 1.4x | 0.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 2.1x | 7.3x | 5.2x | 3.4x | 2.8x | 0.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 2.1x | 3.4x | 7.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 0.2x | 0.8x | 2.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 3,588 | 3,588 | 3,588 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,580 | 4,821 | 5,062 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 11,985 | 11,985 | 11,985 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 16,565 | 16,806 | 17,047 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 148.3 | 148.3 | 148.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 111.72 | 113.35 | 114.97 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/MXN | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 118.73 | 120.46 | 122.19 | 120.43 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -1.4% | 0.0% | 1.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | EXX | YZCA | WHC | OD8 | BTU | TGA N | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,371 | 96,507 | 5,103 | 2,266 | 2,761 | 4,816 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 20,634 | 38,610 | 880 | 807 | 700 | 10,121 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 22,939 | 27,271 | 84 | 323 | 162 | 2,458 | |
| (-) Debt | (8,779) | (111,968) | (2,068) | (361) | (467) | (50) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (14,563) | (50,416) | 0 | 0 | (58) | (544) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 35,602 | 4 | 3,999 | 3,035 | 3,099 | 16,801 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 241.5 | 51,953.4 | 834.9 | 843.4 | 121.6 | 148.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 147.40 | 0.00 | 4.79 | 3.60 | 25.49 | 113.32 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 0.94 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 147.40 | 0.01 | 4.79 | 2.00 | 25.49 | 120.43 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | ARS | AUD | EUR | USD | MXN | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 0.94 | |