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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1,3x - 1,4x | 1,4x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1,3x - 1,4x | 1,3x |
| Fair Value | Mex$ 109,01 - Mex$ 121,41 | Mex$ 115,21 |
| Upside | -9,4% - 0,9% | -4,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. | ALFA A | BMV:ALFAA |
| Grupo KUO, S.A.B. de C.V. | KUO B | BMV:KUOB |
| Top Frontier Investment Holdings, Inc. | TFHI | PSE:TFHI |
| Nisshinbo Holdings Inc. | 3105 | TSE:3105 |
| Thoresen Thai Agencies Public Company Limited | THAF.F | OTCPK:THAF.F |
| Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V. | GCARSO A1 | BMV:GCARSOA1 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| ALFA A | KUO B | TFHI | 3105 | THAF.F | GCARSO A1 | |||
| BMV:ALFAA | BMV:KUOB | PSE:TFHI | TSE:3105 | OTCPK:THAF.F | BMV:GCARSOA1 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -8.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | -0.6% | 15.9% | 14.6% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -18.1% | -4.0% | 25.8% | -1.0% | 13.3% | 17.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.6% | -8.0% | 7.7% | -8.6% | 34.3% | 2.3% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.1% | 2.9% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 10.9% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.7% | 2.0% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 6.1% | 12.5% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.7% | 3.0% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 11.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.7% | 3.0% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 11.5% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.91x | 0.20x | 1.12x | 0.45x | 0.37x | 1.42x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.8x | 6.8x | 11.3x | 13.5x | 6.3x | 12.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.54x | 0.54x | 0.01x | 0.29x | 0.23x | 1.32x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.20x | 0.45x | 1.12x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.17x | 1.42x | 2.22x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.29x | 1.35x | 1.42x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 202,983 | 202,983 | 202,983 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 261,164 | 274,909 | 288,655 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (19,766) | (19,766) | (19,766) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 241,398 | 255,143 | 268,889 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,255.3 | 2,255.3 | 2,255.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 107.04 | 113.13 | 119.22 | |||||
| FX Rate: MXN/MXN | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 107.04 | 113.13 | 119.22 | 120.27 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -11.0% | -5.9% | -0.9% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ALFA A | KUO B | TFHI | 3105 | THAF.F | GCARSO A1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,836 | 5,492 | 1,761,278 | 224,126 | 10,554 | 291,012 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 12,570 | 2,220 | 284,510 | 50,411 | 8,512 | 16,191 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 117,076 | 10,863 | 64,949 | 112,695 | 2,418 | 37,954 | |
| (-) Debt | (62,526) | (1,082) | (1,525,168) | (217,185) | (12,009) | (54,173) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (10,186) | (0) | (610,959) | (27,996) | (3,485) | (19,738) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 48,063 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 88,770 | 17,494 | 22,673 | 142,051 | 5,989 | 271,246 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,558.5 | 437.3 | 377.9 | 156.1 | 2,070.6 | 2,255.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 15.97 | 40.00 | 60.00 | 909.90 | 2.89 | 120.27 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 34.03 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 15.97 | 40.00 | 60.00 | 909.90 | 0.09 | 120.27 | |
| Trading Currency | MXN | MXN | PHP | JPY | USD | MXN | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 34.03 | 1.00 | |