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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 14,5x - 16,0x | 15,3x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11,1x - 12,2x | 11,6x |
Fair Value | €55,51 - €61,27 | €58,39 |
Upside | 9,2% - 20,5% | 14,9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. | JN0 | DB:JN0 |
Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A. | BC | BIT:BC |
Prada S.p.A. | PRP | DB:PRP |
Compagnie Financière Richemont SA | 1CFR | BIT:1CFR |
Hermès International Société en commandite par actions | RMS | ENXTPA:RMS |
Moncler S.p.A. | MONC | BIT:MONC |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
JN0 | BC | PRP | 1CFR | RMS | MONC | ||
DB:JN0 | BIT:BC | DB:PRP | BIT:1CFR | ENXTPA:RMS | BIT:MONC | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 9.1% | 18.8% | 23.4% | 17.9% | 20.3% | 12.7% | |
3Y CAGR | -3.4% | 30.5% | 30.1% | 4.9% | 19.6% | 14.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -10.5% | 7.5% | 17.2% | -5.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 15.5% | 17.3% | 21.9% | 23.8% | 41.8% | 32.5% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 15.3% | 21.2% | 27.3% | 26.6% | 45.0% | 33.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 13.4% | 20.3% | 27.9% | 24.2% | 43.2% | 32.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 13.4% | 20.3% | 27.9% | 24.2% | 43.2% | 32.4% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.37x | 6.35x | 2.85x | 4.21x | 15.57x | 4.35x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.2x | 31.2x | 10.2x | 17.4x | 36.0x | 13.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 14.5x | 37.8x | 12.1x | 20.0x | 37.9x | 14.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.2x | 17.4x | 36.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.4x | 17.4x | 29.6x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.5x | 15.3x | 16.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 1,007 | 1,007 | 1,007 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 14,623 | 15,393 | 16,162 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 235 | 235 | 235 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 14,858 | 15,627 | 16,397 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 270.6 | 270.6 | 270.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 54.91 | 57.75 | 60.59 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 54.91 | 57.75 | 60.59 | 50.84 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 8.0% | 13.6% | 19.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | JN0 | BC | PRP | 1CFR | RMS | MONC | |
Enterprise Value | 2,670 | 8,097 | 15,550 | 89,548 | 234,865 | 13,523 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 293 | 183 | 1,012 | 16,768 | 11,642 | 1,188 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 26 | 18 | 38 | 968 | 1,265 | 4 | |
(-) Debt | (1,050) | (963) | (2,787) | (13,147) | (2,174) | (957) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (67) | (17) | (20) | (67) | (7) | (0) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,872 | 7,318 | 13,792 | 94,070 | 245,591 | 13,758 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 252.6 | 68.0 | 2,558.8 | 587.9 | 104.9 | 270.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 7.41 | 107.70 | 5.39 | 160.00 | 2,342.00 | 50.84 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.41 | 107.70 | 5.39 | 160.00 | 2,342.00 | 50.84 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |