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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5,8x - 6,4x | 6,1x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4,4x - 4,9x | 4,6x |
Fair Value | €2,10 - €2,33 | €2,22 |
Upside | 42,9% - 58,5% | 50,7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Publicis Groupe S.A. | PUB | ENXTPA:PUB |
Dentsu Group Inc. | DEN | DB:DEN |
The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. | IPG | DB:IPG |
WPP plc | 0WP | DB:0WP |
Hakuhodo DY Holdings Inc | 2433 | TSE:2433 |
Havas N.V. | HAVASA | BATS-CHIXE:HAVASA |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
PUB | DEN | IPG | 0WP | 2433 | HAVASA | ||
ENXTPA:PUB | DB:DEN | DB:IPG | DB:0WP | TSE:2433 | BATS-CHIXE:HAVASA | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 6.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | -0.4% | -1.7% | NM- | |
3Y CAGR | 8.7% | -0.1% | -1.0% | 2.9% | -11.1% | 8.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 10.2% | 1.1% | -4.1% | 99.7% | 6.2% | -1.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 17.7% | 17.6% | 18.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 12.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 16.9% | 15.7% | 18.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 12.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 17.0% | 15.3% | 18.4% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 12.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 16.8% | 14.4% | 18.5% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 12.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.44x | 0.70x | 1.26x | 0.53x | 0.19x | 0.53x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.6x | 4.9x | 6.8x | 5.0x | 2.8x | 4.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.6x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 5.9x | 4.8x | 4.7x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.8x | 5.0x | 8.6x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.2x | 4.2x | 4.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 6.1x | 6.4x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 365 | 365 | 365 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,117 | 2,229 | 2,340 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (72) | (72) | (72) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,045 | 2,157 | 2,268 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 989.8 | 989.8 | 989.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 2.07 | 2.18 | 2.29 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.07 | 2.18 | 2.29 | 1.47 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 40.4% | 48.0% | 55.7% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | PUB | DEN | IPG | 0WP | 2433 | HAVASA | |
Enterprise Value | 24,229 | 977,609 | 11,300 | 7,810 | 178,860 | 1,529 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,214 | 315,172 | 1,869 | 2,638 | 222,480 | 234 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 75 | 55,845 | 0 | 651 | 166,378 | 43 | |
(-) Debt | (5,516) | (562,803) | (4,206) | (6,348) | (121,558) | (323) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 27 | (69,607) | (109) | (259) | (23,299) | (26) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 21,029 | 716,216 | 8,854 | 4,492 | 422,861 | 1,457 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 250.8 | 259.6 | 369.7 | 1,078.8 | 367.4 | 989.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 83.84 | 2,759.23 | 23.95 | 4.16 | 1,151.00 | 1.47 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 172.45 | 1.17 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 83.84 | 16.00 | 20.41 | 4.80 | 1,151.00 | 1.47 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | JPY | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 172.45 | 1.17 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.00 |